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Uticaj sistema deviznog kursa na ekonomski rast Bosne i Hercegovine
The effect of the exchange rate system on the economic growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ministry of Trade and Tourism, Government of Republika Srpska, Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina
e-adresa: d.marjanac@gmail.com
Sažetak
Predmet istraživanja odnosi se na analizu uticaja sistema deviznog kursa u Bosni i Hercegovini na makroekonomske pokazatelje ekonomskog rasta. Cilj istraživanja je da se omogući teorijski i analitički pregled mehanizma funkcionisanja i uticaja sistema deviznog kursa na inkluzivan i održiv ekonomski rast u dugom roku. Istraživanje je sprovedeno primenom analize relevantne literature, metode dedukcije i ekonometrijskim izračunima uticaja sistema deviznog kursa na makroekonomske pokazatelje, odnosno, na bruto domaći proizvod, zaposlenost i trgovinski bilans. Istraživanje će ponuditi i odgovor na istraživačko pitanje: Da li sistem deviznog kursa ima uticaj na ekonomski rast Bosne i Hercegovine u dugom roku? Rezultati istraživanja pokazaće postojanje relacije i uticaja sistema deviznog kursa na targetirane makroekonomske parametre. Zaključci istraživanja odnose se na potvrđivanje osnovne hipoteze da devizni kurs konvertibilne marke ima uticaj na rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda, zaposlenost i trgovinski bilans Bosne i Hercegovine u dugom roku. Doprinos istraživanja je da se naučnoj i stručnoj javnosti predstave rezultati analize uticaja sistema deviznog kursa na ekonomski rast kao i moguće alternative i promene sistema koji će omogućiti brži i stabilniji ekonomski rast u dugom roku.
Abstract
The subject of the research refers to the analysis of the influence of the exchange rate system in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on the macroeconomic indicators of economic growth. The goal of the research is to provide a theoretical and analytical overview of the mechanism of functioning and influence of the exchange rate system on inclusive economic growth in the long run. The research was conducted by applying the analysis of relevant literature, method of deduction and econometric calculations of the influence of the exchange rate system on macroeconomic indicators, that is, on gross domestic product, employment and trade balance. The research will offer an answer to the research question: Does the exchange rate system have an influence on the economic growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the long run? The results of the research will show the existence of the relation and influence of the exchange rate system on targeted macroeconomic parameters. Conclusions of the research relate to the confirmation of the basic hypothesis that the exchange rate of the convertible mark has bounded affect the growth of gross domestic product, employment and trade balance of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the long run. The contribution of the research is to present to the scientific and professional public the results of the analysis of the influence of the exchange rate system on economic growth, as well as possible alternatives and changes in the system that will enable faster and more stable economic growth in the long run.
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