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2017, vol. 63, br. 3, str. 1-12
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Korišćenje input-autput tabela za merenje doprinosa industrija trgovinskom bilansu
Using input-output tab les to measure the contribution of industries to the trade balance
aDepartment of Economics and Management, Belarus State Economic University, Minsk, Republic of Belarus bMinistry of Economy of Belarus, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
e-adresa: aliaksei.bykau@yandex.ru, viexost@mail.ru
Sažetak
Beloruska ekonomija je u stanju ravnoteže od 2016. godine: trgovinski deficit i veliki spoljni dug su smanjeni, a domaća valuta je ojačana. Problem je povećanje privrednog rasta, uz izbegavanje trgovinskog deficita. Uloga strukturalne politike je da kontroliše stopu rasta specifičnih industrija. Industrije koje obezbeđuju trgovinski suficit treba da rastu brže. Vlada je stimulisala i investicionu i ličnu potrošnju u periodu od 2006. do 2014. godine. Kao rezultat toga, rast BDP-a je dostigao 5-12%, ali je, posledično, ukupni spoljni dug premašio 75% BDP-a. Otkrili smo da stimulisanje ekonomskog rasta pomoću kvantitativnih olakšica u maloj otvorenoj ekonomiji obično dovodi do neravnoteže. Štaviše, neravnoteža dostiže kritični nivo, ako se izvoz smanji. U 2016. situacija sa izvozom je bila ekstremno nepovoljna za Belorusiju. Stoga, ako vlada ne može da u potpunosti ukine podsticanje (stimulisanje) ekonomije, trebalo bi da podsticanje ekonomije primenjuje selektivno kako bi se izbegle neravnoteže. Za ovu svrhu, predlažemo diferenciranje industrija po njihovom doprinosuu trgovinskom bilansu. Predlažemo alat za procenu doprinosa svakog sektora ekonomije (industrije, ili proizvodnje) trgovinskom bilansu. Osnovni podaci su prezentovani u input-autput tabelama, a metodologija se zasniva na indikatorima the Trade in Value Added (TiVA). Posebno ističemo ukupni (agregatni) lanac vrednosti za svaki finalni proizvod, razlikujući, pri tom, domaću i stranu dodatnu vrednost u ukupnom izvozu od finalne tražnje za svaku industriju. Procene beloruske ekonomije omogućile su da se industrije podele u tri grupe, prema njihovom doprinosu trgovinskom bilansu: Grupa 1: Proizvodi (industrije) koji doprinose trgovinskom suficitu. Domaća dodatna vrednost sadržana u ovim proizvodima prevazilazi domaću finalnu tražnju, uzimajući u obzir intermedijalni (međuproizvodni) i finalni (krajnji) uvoz. Ova grupa uključuje: naftne derivate, hemikalije, usluge transporta, poslovne usluge (uključujući razvoj softvera). Grupa 2: Proizvodi koji dovode do trgovinskog deficita. Finala (ukupna) tražnja za ovim proizvodima prevazilazi domaću dodatu vrednost. Reč je o građevinskim uslugama i industrijskim proizvodma kao što su: mašine i oprema, elektronika i vozila). Grupa 3: Proizvodi koji ne utiču na trgovinski bilans uključuju odeću, drvo, maloprodaju i slično. Na primer, otkrili smo da građevinska industrija stvara 3.5-4.5 triliona dolara neto uvoza, dok ukupni (bruto) uvoz iznosi 44-48 biliona dolara u periodu od 2012. do 2014. U ovom periodu, naftni derivati doprineli su približno u istom iznosu (ako uzeti u obzir izvoz marže) domaćoj dodatnoj vrednosti uključenoj u bruto izvozu. U 2016. izvoz naftnih derivata je smanjen za 50 odsto. Obim građevinskih radova je, takođe, prepolovljen, čime je izbegnut trgovinski deficit.
Abstract
The Belarusian economy is in a state of balance since 2016: trade deficit and gross foreign debt were reduced, the local currency strengthened. The problem is in resumption of economic growth, while avoiding trade deficit. The role of structural policy is to control the rate of growth of specific industries. Those industries that provide trade surplus should grow faster. Government was stimulated both investment and consumer demand in the period from 2006 to 2014. As a result, GDP growth reached 5-12%, but subsequently the gross foreign debt exceeded 75% of GDP. We have found that economic growth stimulation through quantitative easing in a small open economy usually leads to imbalances. Furthermore, imbalances reach critical levels if exports declining. In 2016 the situation with exports was extremely unfavorable for Belarus. Therefore, if government could not abandon stimulation entirely, it should still apply it selectively, in order to avoid imbalances. For this purpose, we propose to differentiate the industries in their contribution to the trade balance. We offer a tool for assessing the contribution of each sector of economy (industry, or a product) to the trade balance. Baseline data are presented in the Input-Output tables, and the methodology is based on the Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators. Particularly, we line up the aggregate value chains for each final product, distinguishing foreign and domestic value added in gross exports and final demand for each industry. The estimates of the Belarusian economy made it possible to divide the industries into three groups, according to their contribution to the trade balance: Group 1: Products that contribute trade surplus. Domestic value added embodied in these products exceeds domestic final demand, taking into account the intermediate and final imports. This group includes: petroleum products, chemicals, transport services, business services (including software development). Group 2: Products creating trade deficit. Final demand for these products exceeds domestic value added - they are construction services, as well as manufacturing products: machinery and equipment, electronics and vehicles. Group 3: Relatively neutral to the trade balance products, which include garment, wood, retailing, and some others. For instance, it was found that the construction industry creates $3,5-4,5 billion of net imports, while total gross imports equals $44-48 billion in 2012 - 2014. In this period, petroleum products contributed approximately the same amount (if take into consideration export margins) to the domestic value added embodied in gross exports. In 2016 exports of petroleum products declined on a half. The volume of construction works was also halved, that allowed avoiding trade imbalance.
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