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2016, vol. 45, iss. 1, pp. 42-53
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Effects of raising US interest rates on global FX markets
Posledice porasta kamatnih stopa u SAD na globalno FX tržište
Abstract
Following the global financial crisis of 2008, many countries decreased their domestic interest rates as a means of stimulating economic growth, while also providing protection from substantial default on debt. Low interest rates reduce the incentive to save, prompting consumers to purchase assets, such as housing, thus implicitly increasing wealth. In addition, they make the currency relatively cheaper, making exports more competitive, while reducing foreign demand for holding debt in that currency. All these should stimulate economy, albeit at the cost of reduced competitiveness in the world financial markets, where return on investment is largely determined by the interest rates. Low interest rates also prompt greater borrowing, which may not be sustainable once they start to rise. In addition, those that largely depend on interest rate income may seek more speculative and high-risk investments, potentially leading to significant defaults. Finally, as the market interest rate is composed of the real rate and inflation, decreasing rates changes the balance in this relationship, which may lead to inflationary economy. Now that the US has increased its domestic rates for the first time since 2006, it is important to examine the potential effects this will have on global markets and other economies. This paper offers some insights into the dynamics of the FX markets and discusses why the US rate is so closely watched worldwide.
Sažetak
Nakon globalne finansijske krize koja je počela 2008. godine, kamatne stope su smanjene u mnogim državama, da bi se stimulisao ekonomski rast, ali i umanjio rizik neisplate postojećih dugovanja. Niske kamatne stope smanjuju motivaciju za štednju, što navodi potrošače da ulažu sredstva u imovinu, kao što su nekretnine, tako neposredno podstičući porast bogatstva. Takođe, pošto one čine valutu jeftinijom na međunarodnom tržištu, izvozna roba postaje kompetitivnija, dok se smanjuje inostrana potražnja za dugovanjima u datoj valuti. Svi ovi faktori bi trebalo da stimulišu ekonomiju, ali je njihova posledica i smanjena kompetitivnost na svetskom finansijskom tržištu, gde je dobit ostvarena na ulog prvenstveno uslovljena preovladavajućim kamatnim stopama. Niske kamatne stope takođe podstiču veće zaduživanje, koje postaje neodrživo kada dođe do njihovog porasta. Osim toga, investitori koji u velikoj meri ovise o kamatnim stopama kao izvoru prihoda će potencijalno tražiti spekulativnija i rizičnija ulaganja, što može dovesti do značajnih gubitaka. Konačno, pošto se tržišna kamatna stopa sastoji od realne stope i inflacije, njeno smanjenje menja ravnotežu u ovoj vezi, što može dovesti do inflatorne ekonomije. Sada kada su u SAD povećane domaće kamatne stope po prvi put od 2006. godine, važno je ispitati potencijalne posledice koje će to imati na svetsko tržište i ekonomiju drugih država. Ovaj rad nudi neke uvide u dinamiku FX tržišta i objašnjava zašto kamatna stopa u SAD ima svetski značaj.
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