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2021, vol. 50, br. 2, str. 8-20
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Sinhronizacija poslovnog ciklusa i monetarna politika u Bosni i Hercegovini
Business cycle synchronization and monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina
n/a
Sažetak
Usvajanjem valutnog odbora krajem prošlog vijeka i vezivanjem svog kursa za evro, prije četvrt stoljeća, Bosna i Hercegovina je predala veliki dio svoje monetarne politike u ruke Evropske centralne banke u nadi da će sinhronizacija poslovnog ciklusa, učiniti stranu monetarnu politiku potpuno pogodnom za Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Istovremeno, tokom ove dvije decenije, Centralna banka Bosne i Hercegovine razvija i koristi obaveznu rezervu i naknadu kao diskrecione instrumente monetarne politike. Istraživanje pokazuje da su domaći i inostrani poslovni ciklus slabo sinhronizovani u odnosu na stepen sinhronizacije drugih zemalja, a ovim nalazima u potpunosti je opravdana trenutna diskreciona monetarna politika i njen dalji razvoj i obogaćivanje novim instrumentima. Bosna i Hercegovina mora nastaviti s razvojem vlastite diskrecione monetarne politike bez oslanjanja na spoljnu monetarnu politiku.
Abstract
By adopting the currency board at the end of the last century, and by pegging its exchange rate to the Euro, a quarter of a century ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina surrendered a great part of its monetary policy in the hand of European Central Bank in the hope that the synchronization of the business cycle will make foreign monetary policy completely suitable for Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time during these two decades, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been developing and using reserve requirement and remuneration as discretionary instruments of monetary policy. The research shows that the domestic business cycle and the foreign one are relatively weakly synchronized compared to other countries' degree of synchronization, and by this findings current discretionary monetary policy and its further development and enrichment with new instruments is fully justified. Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue with developing its own discretionary monetary policy without relying on foreign monetary policy.
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