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2021, vol. 69, br. 3-4, str. 137-167
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Kako smo dočekali krizu izazvanu pandemijom kovida 19
How we entered the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic
National Bank of Serbia
Sažetak
Cilj rada je da se ukaže na jačinu i efekte šoka koje je na svetsku i domaću ekonomiju imala kriza izazvana pandemijom kovida 19, pri čemu se efekti razlikuju u zavisnosti od karakteristika ekonomija i odgovora nosilaca ekonomskih politika. Krizu nazvanu "veliko zaključavanje" karakteriše: 1) obustavljanje aktivnosti u pojedinim sektorima, a u nekim i ogroman pad aktivnosti uz izraženu asimetriju; 2) sprovođenje obimnih paketa mera monetarne i fiskalne politike. Fokus rada je na merama donetim u Srbiji za ublažavanje negativnih efekata pandemije na domaću ekonomiju. Detaljno se razrađuju privremene mere donete od strane Narodne banke Srbije (NBS) koje su obezbedile očuvanje stabilnosti na deviznom tržištu, efikasno funkcionisanje tržišta novca, podršku likvidnosti svim sektorima, povoljnije uslove finansiranja, očuvanje kreditne aktivnosti i podršku domaćem realnom sektoru. Naša je procena da bi u Srbiji, bez donetih mera monetarne i fiskalne politike, pad ekonomske aktivnosti u 2020. godini iznosio preko 6%, dok bi rast u 2021. godini bio skroman, a ni u srednjem roku ne bi dostigao dinamiku rasta od pre pandemije. Donošenje i sprovođenje velikog paketa mera je bilo moguće jer je, jačanjem domaće ekonomije, kao i sprovođenjem strukturnih reformi u prethodnom periodu, Srbija ovu krizu dočekala u dobroj makroekonomskoj i fiskalnoj poziciji. Srbija zapravo može da posluži kao primer zemlje koji potvrđuje značaj toga što je u prethodnih osam godina ekonomija ojačana na održivim osnovama, što je stvorilo prostor za donošenje obimnih ekonomskih mera podrške građanima i privredi, kako bi se sačuvali proizvodni kapaciteti i radna mesta.
Abstract
The paper aims to point out the strength and effects of the shock of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the global and domestic economy. Effects differ depending on the characteristics of individual economies and the response of economic policy makers. The crisis called "the great lockdown" features: 1) suspension of activity in some sectors and huge declines in others, with pronounced asymmetry and 2) implementation of robust packages of monetary and fiscal policy measures. The paper focuses on the measures adopted in Serbia to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic on the domestic economy. It elaborates on the temporary measures adopted by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which helped preserve stability in the foreign exchange market, ensured efficient functioning of the money market, liquidity support to all sectors and more favourable financing conditions, sustained credit activity and supported the domestic real sector. According to our estimate, if the monetary and fiscal policy measures had not been adopted, the fall in Serbia's economic activity in 2020 would have exceeded 6%, while growth in 2021 would be modest, failing to reach the pre-pandemic growth dynamics even in the medium term. The adoption and implementation of the robust package of measures was possible because Serbia faced the crisis in a good macroeconomic and fiscal position owing to the strengthened economy and implementation of structural reforms in the past period. In fact, Serbia can serve as the example of a country confirming the importance of strengthening the economy on sustainable grounds in the past eight years, which created room for the adoption of comprehensive economic measures to support citizens and businesses, in order to preserve production capacities and jobs.
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