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2012, vol. 60, br. 1-2, str. 63-77
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Nova industrijska politika - slalom između Scile tržišta Haribde državne intervencije
New industrial policy: Navigating between market and government failure
Univerzitet Singidunum, FEFA - Fakultet za ekonomiju, finansije i administraciju - FEFA, Beograd, Srbija
Sažetak
Posle tri decenije izgnanstva industrijska politika (IP) ponovo je deo legitimnih politika koje stoje na raspolaganju razvijenim i novim tržišnim privredama. Teorijsko opravdanje za IP intervencije ostaje validno u prisustvu stalnih tržišnih nesavršenosti koje se pojačavaju rastom međunarodne trgovine i sve jačih (ekonomskih i finansijskih) veza u globalnoj svetskoj privredi. Ali opasnosti grešaka državne intervencije ostaju prisutne, bilo da je reč o pogrešnim ili prejakim merama, ili o odsustvu neophodnih mera da se preduprede ili koriguju greške tržišta. Na nivou praktične politike, pitanje nije 'zašto' je potrebna IP, i da li bi država trebalo da se angažuje u vođenju IP, već 'kako' da se pripreme i sprovedu mere IP da bi se izbegle greške iz prošlosti, podržao privredni razvoj i dostigla željena promena ekonomske strukture. Nedavne debate (Lin-Chang, Rodrik-Lerner) i detaljni pregled literature (Harrison) potvrđuju potrebu za vođenjem IP, ali preporučuju da mere IP budu usaglašene sa pravilima komparativnih prednosti (Lin), pomerene sa tzv. Tvrdih mera (carine, subvencije) na mekane IP mere usmerene na porast produktivnosti(Harrison), i predlažu da se izbegava rizik loše koncipiranih IP mera putem zajedničkog delovanja države i privatnog sektora u 'otkrivanju' optimalnih IP parametara koji ex ante nisu poznati (Rodrik). Postojeći aranžmani u okviru STO i bilateralni dogovori mogu ozbiljno da ograničavaju raspoloživi prostor za definisanje i sprovođenje legitimne industrijske politike.
Abstract
After three decades of expulsion, the industrial policy (IP) is again a part of legitimate policy agenda in developed and emerging economies alike. The theoretical case for IP interventions remains valid in the presence of continued market failures enhanced by growing share of international trade and stronger connectedness in the global economy. But dangers of government failures are equally present, either through errors of commission (due to excessive and wrong government intervention)or omission (failure to act and correct the obvious market failures). At the practical policy level the issue is no longer 'why' IP is needed, or whether the government should engage in IP, but 'how' to design and implement IP measures that would avoid the known pitfalls of the past and help sustain development and obtain desirable economic restructuring. Recent debates (Lin-Chang, Rodrik-Lerner) and thorough literature surveys(Harrison)confirm the need for IP, but recommend a close alignment with comparative advantage (Lin), shift from hard (tariffs, subsidies) to soft IP interventions aimed at increasing productivity when ever possible (Harrison), and suggest avoiding risks of poorly designed IP measures through joint government-private sector 'self-discovery' of optimal IP policy parameters not known ex ante (Rodrik). Advanced WTO and bilateral trade arrangements may seriously limit the scope for legitimate new industrial policy.
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