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2021, vol. 69, br. 1, str. 122-158
Ekonomske posledice španske groznice (1918-1920) - skica za ekonomsku istoriografiju jedne pandemije
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Pravni fakultet

e-adresabegovic@ius.bg.ac.rs
Ključne reči: Pandemija; Španska groznica; COVID-19; Privredni rast; Ljudski kapital
Sažetak
Cilj rada je da istraži ekonomske posledice pandemije španske groznice i da dobijene nalaze sistematizuje tako da oni mogu da se iskoriste za spoznaju ekonomskih posledica pandemije COVID-19. Na kratak rok posmatrano, pokazalo se da je španska groznica jednokratno snažno oborila nivo privredne aktivnosti značajnim umanjenjem ponude radne snage, uz dodatno dejstvo umanjenja agregatne tražnje. Oporavak od tog pada bio je brz, zasnovan na tranzitornom privrednom rastu. Na dugi rok posmatrano, španska groznica je oborila nivo raspoloživog ljudskog kapitala, i to i direktno, prekomernim mortalitetom onih koji poseduju ljudski kapital a čine radno sposobno stanovništvo, i indirektno, uticajem na intergeneracijsko prenošenje nižeg nivoa ljudskog kapitala, kao i pogoršanjem zdravlja majki tokom graviditeta - potvrdila se hipoteza o fetusnom poreklu pada nivoa ljudskog kapitala. Obaranje nivoa raspoloživog ljudskog kapitala ima nepovoljne posledice po privredni rast, koje postaju sve izraženije sa tehnološkim napretkom koji zahteva sve viši nivo tog kapitala.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: članak
DOI: 10.51204/Anali_PFBU_21105A
primljen: 24.01.2021.
prihvaćen: 03.03.2021.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 03.04.2021.
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