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2022, vol. 24, br. 3, str. 243-262
Izvozne performanse i konkurentnost perifernih članica Evrozone
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Srbija

e-adresaradovan.kovacevic@ekof.bg.ac.rs
Ključne reči: izvoz; realni efektivni devizni kurs; inostrana tražnja; neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija; kointegracija; izvozna jednačina
Sažetak
U ovom radu se analizira uticaj relevantnih faktora na kretanje realnog izvoza robe i usluga nekoliko perifernih članica evrozone. U uzorku se nalazi pet zemalja (Italija, Španija, Portugalija, Irska i Grčka). Posmatra se vremenski period 2000-2019. Cilj istraživanja je da pruži robustne ocene dugoročne veze između realnog izvoza ovih zemalja i izabranih objašnjavajućih varijabli, koristeći panel analizu. Ocenjeni su koeficijenati kointegracione izvozne jednačine pomoću FMOLS i DOLS estimatora. Primenom FMOLS estimatora, ocenjena vrednost koeficijenta uz varijablu realni efektivni devizni kurs je negativna (-0,80), a uz varijablu inostrane tražnje je pozitivna (2,25). Koeficijent uz realni efektivni devizni kurs potvrđuje da precenjena realna vrednost evra, iz ugla perifernih članica evrozone, deluje destimulativno na njihov realni izvoz. Ocenjeni koeficijent, uz varijablu inostrane tražnje, sugeriše da se realan izvoz robe i usluga (volumeni) perifernih članica evrozone povaćava za 2,25% kad realan bruto društveni proizvod (BDP) EU poraste za 1%. Elastičnost realnog izvoza perifernih članica je veća prema stranoj tražnji (dohodna elastičnost) nego prema promeni relativnih cena (cenovna elastičnost). Smanjivanje nadnica i cena u perifernim članicama dovelo je do redistributivnih efekata u korist jezgra Evrozone.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor2203243K
primljen: 21.07.2022.
prihvaćen: 24.11.2022.
objavljen onlajn: 06.12.2022.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 10.12.2022.
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