2018, vol. 13, br. 1, str. 103-122
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Međunarodna zaduženost i kriza u Republici Srbiji
International indebtedness and debt crisis in the Republic of Serbia
Sažetak
Dugovi su negativni kapital i zato predstavljaju odbitnu stavku u obračunima nacionalnog bogatstva i bogatstva pojednih organizacionih ili socijalnih entiteta. Nakon izvršene generalne konsolidacije javnih finansija, kao i spoljnog i unutrašnjeg duga, pokazalo se da je stanje bogatstva u pojedinim segmentima društva i u društvu kao celini nepovoljno. Između budžeta i makroekonomskih agregata postoji visok stepen međuzavisnosti. Preko budžeta ukupna javna potrošnja se vezuje za ekonomsku politiku države i ciljeve koje treba ostvariti u raspodeli i preraspodeli društvenog proizvoda. Srbija godinama beleži visok nivo javne potrošnje, što predstavlja veliki problem za državni budžet i makroekonomska kretanja. Na ovu pojavu mora se reagovati adekvatnim rešenjima, koja opet mogu imati i negativne posledice, na primer, otpuštanje radnika zaposlenih u javnom sektoru smanjiće javnu potrošnju, ali povećati problem nezaposlenosti. Izlaze treba tražiti kroz investicije, pokretanje proizvodnih procesa, razvoj malih i srednjih preduzeća, privlačenje stranog kapitala i dr. Prema tome, osnov dugoročne strategije privrednog razvoja Srbije treba da bude održivi privredni rast, podizanje konkurentnosti privrede, izgradnja društva zasnovanog na znanju, uravnotežen regionalni razvoj i priključenje EU. Makroekonomske projekcije zasnivaju se na međuuslovljenosti rasta BDP, investicija, zapošljavanja, produktivnosti i određuju mogućnosti povećanja lične i državne potrošnje u uslovima cenovne stabilnosti, fiskalne ravnoteže, smanjivanje deficita tekućeg platnog bilansa i urednog servisiranja spoljnog duga.
Abstract
Debts are primitive capital and therefore represent a deductible item in the accounts of national wealth and wealth of individual organizational or social entities. After the general consolidation of public finances, such as external and internal debt, it turned out that the wealth situation in certain segments of the society and in society as a whole is unfavorable. There is a high degree of interdependence between the budget and the macroeconomic aggregates. Through the budget, total public spending is linked to the economic policy of the state and the goals to be achieved in the distribution and redistribution of the product. Serbia has for years had a low level of public spending, which is a major problem for the state budget and macroeconomic trends. This phenomenon must respond to adequate solutions, which can again have negative consequences, for example, laying off workers in the public sector will reduce public spending, but increase the problem of unemployment. Exits should be sought through investments, starting production processes, developing small and medium enterprises, attracting foreign capital, etc. Therefore, the basis of the long-term strategy of Serbia's economic development should be sustainable economic growth, raising the competitiveness of the economy, building a knowledge-based society, balanced regional development and E U accession. Macroeconomic projections are based on the interrelated growth of GDP, investment, employment, productivity and determine the possibilities of increasing personal and government spending in conditions of price stability, fiscal balance, reduction of the current account deficit and proper servicing of external debt.
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