Metrika

  • citati u SCIndeksu: 0
  • citati u CrossRef-u:0
  • citati u Google Scholaru:[]
  • posete u poslednjih 30 dana:9
  • preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:5

Sadržaj

članak: 4 od 55  
Back povratak na rezultate
2021, vol. 2, br. 3, str. 278-285
Modelovanje kao način upravljanja neizvesnošću pandemije - procena smrtnosti u KOVID-19 pandemiji
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Medicinski fakultet, Institut za socijalnu medicinu + Univerzitet u Beogradu, Medicinski fakultet, Centar-Škola javnog zdravlja i menadžmenta u sistemu zdravstvene zaštite, Beograd

e-adresaaleksandar.stevanovic@med.bg.ac.rs
Projekat:
Ovu publikaciju je podržao COST Action CA18218 (Evropska mreža za opterećenost društva bolešću); https://www.burdeneu.net/ koju je podržao COST (Evropska kooperacija u nauci i tehnologiji; https://www.burden-eu.net)

Ključne reči: KOVID-19; pandemija; predviđanje; mere politike
Sažetak
Progresija KOVID-19 pandemije motivisala je medicinsku i naučnu zajednicu da pokuša da modeluje i predvidi transmisiju SARS-KoV-2 virusa. Predviđanje mogućeg toka KOVID-19 pandemije je pomoglo da bolje razumemo nijanse u efektima usvojenih mera, kao i da se usmerimo ka budućim merama koje bi trebalo sprovesti. U ovom radu smo pokušali da sumiramo nekoliko odabranih pristupa koji su korišćeni za procenu efekata KOVID-19 pandemije, kako na globalnom tako i na lokalnom nivou (Srbija).
Reference
*** Estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Available on: http://www.healthdata.org/node/8660 [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
*** COVID-19 confirmed and forecasted case data. Los Alamos national Laboratory COVID-19 Team, Available on: https://covid-19.bsvgateway. org/ [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
*** (2020) COVID-19 statistics in Serbia. Republic of Serbia-Ministry of Health, Available on: https://covid19.rs/homepage-english [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
*** (2021) Statistical release number 203: Year LXXI: 26 July 2021 live births and deaths: January-june 2021. SORS -Statistical Office of Serbia, Available on: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20211203.pdf [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
*** (2021) Statistical release Number 017: Year LXXI: 25 January 2021 live births and deaths: January-december 2020. SORS -Statistical Office of Serbia, Available on: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20211017.pdf [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
*** (2021) Global COVID-19 forecast comparison. GitHub: Available on: https://github.com/pyliu47/covidcompare [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
*** COVID-19 national info page. Republic of Serbia-Ministry of Health, Available on: https://covid19.data.gov.rs [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
Atkeson, A. (26867) What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the us: Rough estimates of disease scenarios. u: NBER Working Paper Series, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, NBER Working Papers, Issue 26867
Davies, N.G., Klepac, P., Liu, Y., Prem, K., Jit, M., Eggo, R.M. (2020) Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nature Medicine, 26(8): 1205-1211
Friedman, J., Liu, P., Troeger, C.E., Carter, A., Reiner, R.C., Barber, R.M., et al. (2021) Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models. Nature Communications, 12(1)
Gémes, K., Talbäck, M., Modig, K., Ahlbom, A., Berglund, A., Feychting, M., et al. (2020) Burden and prevalence of prognostic factors for severe COVID-19 in Sweden. European Journal of Epidemiology, 35(5): 401-409
Gostin, L.O. (2021) The coronavirus pandemic 1 year on: What went wrong?. JAMA, 325(12): 1132
Gu, Y. (2020) COVID-19 projections using machine learning. Available on: https://covid19-projections.com/ [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (2020) Forecasting the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in LMICs. Available on: https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/ [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
Kandel, N., Chungong, S., Omaar, A., Xing, J. (2020) Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: An analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries. Lancet, 395(10229): 1047-1053
Krouse, H.J. (2020) COVID-19 and the widening gap in health inequity. Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, 163: 65-71
Li, M.L., Bouardi, H.T., Lami, O.S., Trikalinos, T.A., Trichakis, N.K., Bertsimas, D. (2020) Forecasting COVID-19 and analyzing the effect of government interventions. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Neogi, S.B., Preetha, G.S. (2020) Assessing health systems' responsiveness in tackling COVID-19 pandemic. Indian Journal of Public Health, 64(6): 211
Reiner, R.C., Barber, R.M., Collins, J.K., Zheng, P., Adolph, C., Albright, J., et al. (2021) Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nature Medicine, 27(1): 94-105
Srivastava, A., Xu, T. (2020) Fast and accurate forecasting of COVID-19 deaths. Available on: http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05180 [Accessed on 27 July 2021]
Tashman, L.J. (2000) Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: An analysis and review. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4): 437-450
Viner, R.M., Russell, S.J., Croker, H., Packer, J., Ward, J., Stansfield, C., et al. (2020) School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including covid-19: A rapid systematic review. Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, 4: 397-404
Wyper, G.M.A., Assunção, R., Cuschieri, S., Devleesschauwer, B., Fletcher, E., Haagsma, J.A., et al. (2020) Population vulnerability to COVID-19 in Europe: A burden of disease analysis. Archives of Public Health, 78
 

O članku

jezik rada: srpski, engleski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
DOI: 10.5937/smclk2-33796
primljen: 03.09.2021.
revidiran: 14.09.2021.
prihvaćen: 16.09.2021.
objavljen onlajn: 30.09.2021.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 15.10.2021.

Povezani članci

Srpski medicinski časopis Lekarske komore (2021)
Mortalitet od KOVID-19 oboljenja u Beogradu
Rosić Nataša, i dr.