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2022, vol. 24, br. 3, str. 229-242
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Doprinos stranih direktnih investicija ekonomskom rastu izabranih evropskih zemalja novih članica Evropske unije - dokaz zasnovan na modelu panel kointegracije
The contribution of foreign direct investment to economic growth in the selected emerging European countries: The evidence based upon the panel cointegration model
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of International Economics, Zagreb, Croatia
e-adresa: vbilas@efzg.hr
Sažetak
Ovaj rad ima za cilj da se ispita da li strane direktne investicije (SDI) i izvozne aktivnosti doprinose ekonomskom rastu u trinaest država novih članica Evropske unije - EU (Bugarska, Hrvatska, Kipar, Češka, Estonija, Mađarska, Letonija, Litvanija, Malta, Poljska, Rumunija, Slovačka i Slovenija), u periodu 2005-2020. Sprovedena su razna statistička testiranja u cilju ispitivanja veze i uzročno-posledičnih odnosa između tri posmatrane serije, uključujući testove jediničnog korena, Kaov i Pedronijev test kointegracije i, konačno, modifikovani test uzročno-posledičnih odnosa. Rezultati su heterogeni. Iako je utvrđeno postojanje kointegracije između SDI, izvoznih aktivnosti i rasta, rezultati se razlikuju u pogledu procene dugoročnih koeficijenata do te mere da se mogu izvesti samo nejasni zaključci o efektu SDI i izvoznih aktivnosti na stvarni rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP). Na osnovu rezultata sprovedenog istraživanja, proizilazi da pozitivni efekti SDI i izvoznih aktivnosti nisu ni automatski ni jednaki u svim zemljama, već da isti zavise od mnogih faktora i uslova, koje bi vlade tih zemalja trebalo da razmotre prilikom kreiranja mera politike privlačenja SDI i promovisanja izvoznih aktivnosti.
Abstract
This paper is aimed at examining the fact whether foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports do contribute to economic growth in the thirteen European Union (EU) new member states (namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) during the period from 2005 to 2020 or not. Various statistical tests were performed in order to examine the relationship and causality among the three observed series, including unit-root tests, the Kao and Pedroni cointegration tests, and finally the modified causality test. The obtained results are mixed. Although cointegration was established between FDI, exports and growth, the estimation of the long-term coefficients varied to such an extent that only ambiguous conclusions about the effect of FDI and exports on the growth of the real gross domestic product (GDP) could be reached. The research results imply the fact that positive effects of FDI and exports are neither automatic nor equal in all the countries, but the same rather depend on the many factors and conditions that the governments of the selected states should consider when designing policy measures for attracting FDI and promoting exports.
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