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2016, vol. 62, iss. 2, pp. 61-70
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Interest ratest and growt in developing countries
Kamate i rast u zemljama u razvoju
Abstract
When developing countries begin to raise the trajectory of long-term development, interest rates and local currencies grow higher. An increase in the real cost of capital, a decline in investment demands, as the IS-LM model envisages, may jeopardize growth. Can the interest rate policy be used to efficiently manage aggregate demand to sustain the initiated growth? It has proved quite successful at higher interest rate policy levels of development. In underdeveloped countries, this is not the case. Developing countries largely fail to succeed in ensuring the full operation of market mechanisms. Their financial market is underdeveloped, capital demand is chronically high, and therefore the manipulation of the discount rate is of little use. In recession, manipulating government expenditures, implementing deficit financing and controlling private and public consumption prove to be more efficient anti-recession instruments. Economic policy ought to provide a favorable environment for achieving developmental objectives: relative price stability and favorable interest rates. Underdeveloped countries need to control, channel and impose certain restrictions. The liberalization of capital transactions must not precede full convertibility of the local currency.
Sažetak
Kad nedovoljno razvijene zemlje počnu da podižu putanju dugoročnog rasta, kamatne stope i vrednost domaće valute rastu. Rast realnog troška kapitala i pad tražnje za investicijama, kako to IS-LM model predviđa, mogu da ugroze rast. Da li se politikom kamatnih stopa može efikasno upravljati agregatnom tražnjom kako bi se održao započeti rast? Na višim nivoima razvijenosti politika kamatnih stopa se može koristiti sa prilično uspeha. U nedovoljno razvijenim zemljama to nije slučaj. Zemlje u razvoju uglavnom ne uspevaju da omoguće puno funkcionisanje tržišnih mehanizama. Njihovo finansijsko tržište je nerazvijeno, tražnja kapitala hronično uvećana, pa manipulisanje eskontnom stopom ne može da bude od veće pomoći. U recesiji, manipulisanje državnim rashodima, primena deficitarnog finansiranja i kontrola privatne i javne potrošnje efikasnija su antirecesiona sredstva. Ekonomska politika treba da obezbedi povoljan ambijent za ostvarenje razvojnih ciljeva: relativnu stabilnost cena i podsticajne kamatne stope. Nedovoljno razvijene zemlje kapitalne transakcije moraju da kontrolišu, kanališu i nameću određena ograničenja. Liberalizacija kapitalnih transakcija ne sme da prethodi punoj konvertibilnosti domaće valute.
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