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2021, vol. 70, br. 1, str. 1-12
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Potreba za navodnjavanjem kukuruza na zemunskom černozemu u poslednjih pola veka
Maize irrigation requirement on Zemun chernozem in the last half of the century
Projekat: Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije (institucija: Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet) (MPNTR - 451-03-68/2020-14/200116)
Sažetak
Proizvodnja kukuruza se na teritoriji Srbije uglavnom odvija u uslovima prirodnog režima kiša. Cilj rada je da se ispita vodni režim černozema zemunske lesne terase pod usevom kukuruza, u poslednjih pola veka (1966-2019) i da se ustanovi da li je tokom tog perioda i u kom obimu, došlo do povećanja ili smanjenja potrebe za navodnjavanjem kukuruza. Za proračun je korišćen matematički biljni model FAO CROPWAT 8.0. U model su unešene mesečne vrednosti referentne evapotranspiracije (ETo) za period 1966-2019, računate metodom Hargreaves, dnevne vrednosti padavina sa meteorološke stanice Surčin, podaci o izabranoj biljci, koji su u skladu sa FAO56. Zemljište je černozem na zemunskoj lesnoj terasi. Analiza je vršena tako što je istraživani period podeljen na tri podperioda: prvih dvadeset (1966-1985), drugih dvadeset (1986-2005) i poslednjih četrnaest (2006-2019) godina. Ustanovljeno je da su prosečne vrednosti potencijalne evapotranspiracije kukuruza bile u porastu, počev od prvog (500 mm) do trećeg (562 mm) podperioda, dok su prosečne vrednosti realne evapotranspiracije, kao i prosečne količine efektivnih padavina u vegetacionom periodu kukuruza, bile u padu. Shodno tome, prosečan deficit vode, odnosno potreba za navodnjavanjem kukuruza je bila u porastu za 56%, počev od prvog (205 mm) do trećeg (319 mm) podperioda istraživanja. Povećanje deficita vode uslovilo je i porast projektovane redukcije prinosa kukuruza, koja u prvom podperiodu iznosi prosečno 31%, a u trećem 47%. Analiza rezultata na mesečnom i dekadnom nivou je pokazala da potreba za navodnjavanjem kukuruza traje od juna zaključno sa avgustom, sa maksimumom u julu (prosečno 123 mm). U sva tri letnja meseca registrovano je povećanje potrebe za navodnjavanjem kukuruza počev od prvog do trećeg podperioda istraživanja, sa maksimalnim povećanjem tokom jula. Obavljena istraživanja koja generalno daju uvid u stanje vodnog režima zemunskog černozema u poslednjih pola veka, pokazuju da se uslovi proizvodnje kukuruza u prirodnom vodnom režimu pogoršavaju i da je potreba za navodnjavanjem sve veća.
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the water regime of chernozem under maize crops in the last half century (1966-2019) and to determine whether during that period and to what extent, there was an increase or decrease in maize irrigation requirements. The mathematical plant model FAO CROPWAT 8.0 was used for the calculation. The calculation was performed on the basis of monthly values of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) for the period 1966-2019, calculated by the modified Hargreaves method, daily values of precipitation from the meteorological station Surcin, data on the selected plant, which are in accordance with FAO56. The soil is chernozem on the Zemun les terrace. The analysis was performed by dividing the research period into three subperiods: the first twenty (1966-1985), the second twenty (1986-2005) and the last fourteen (2006-2019) years. It was found that the average values of potential evapotranspiration of maize were increasing, starting from the first (500mm) to the third (562mm) subperiod, while the average values of actual evapotranspiration, as well as the average amount of effective precipitation in the vegetation period of maize, decreased. Consequently, the average water deficit, i.e. maize irrigation requirements was increased by 56%, starting from the first (205mm) to the third (319mm) subperiod of the research. The increase in the water deficit also caused an increase in the projected reduction in maize yield related to its genetic capasity, which averaged 31% in the first subperiod and 47% in the third. Analysis of the results on a monthly and decadal level showed that maize irrigation requirements lasts from June to August, with a maximum in the second decade of July. In all three summer months, an increase in maize irrigation requirements was registered from the first to the third subperiod of the research, with the maximum increase during July. The conducted research, which generally gives an insight into the state of the water regime of Zemun chernozem in the last half century, shows that the conditions of maize production in the natural rain regime are deteriorating and that the irrigation requirement is increasing.
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