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2019, vol. 62, br. 2, str. 3-13
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Verovatnoća i determinizam u upravljanju mostovima
Probability and determinism in bridge management
Columbia University, Department of Civil Engineering & Engineering Mechanics, New York City, USA + New York University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, New York City, USA
e-adresa: Bojidaryanev1@gmail.com
Sažetak
U brojnim oblastima teorije i primenjene nauke, probablistički modeli i metode predstavljaju zamenu za determinističke. Da bi održala korak sa tom činjenicom, inženjerska struka trenutno revidira projektantske uslove/specifikacije i ažurira tehnike predviđanja, dok ekonomska struka istovremeno usvaja sve složenije statističke modele. Između ove dve sučeljene oblasti, od menadžmenta (upravljača) infrastrukture se očekuje da efikasno primenjuje sve novije alatke, a da se istovremeno ne odrekne uhodanih i pouzdanih metoda koje danas postoje. Prikupljanje i procenjivanje najvažnijih podataka predstavlja ključni faktor u odlučivanju, sa dalekosežnim posledicama u smislu novčanih troškova i kvaliteta života. U ovom radu predstavljeni su autorovi zaključci do kojih je došao na osnovu iskustava u oblasti upravljanja mostovima u gradu Njujorku.
Abstract
Probabilistic models and methods are replacing deterministic ones in many areas of theoretical and applied sciences. To keep up with this development, the engineering profession is revising design specifications and updating forecasting techniques, whereas economics is adopting increasingly complex statistical models. At the intersection between the two fields, the management of the infrastructure must use effectively all new tools without abandoning established and reliable existing practices. The gathering and evaluation of meaningful data are critical to decisions with profound consequences in terms of monetary cost and quality of life. The article presents the author's observations drawn from his bridge management experience in New York City over 30 years.
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