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2022, vol. 26, br. 2, str. 68-70
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Stanje i tendencije proizvodnih karakteristika pšenice i kukuruza u Srbiji
State and tendencies of production characteristics of wheat and maize in Serbia
aUniverzitet u Novom Sadu, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Srbija bUniverzitet odbrane, Vojna akademija, Beograd, Srbija
e-adresa: nesann@polj.uns.ac.rs
Projekat: The work is a result of the research within the project The opportunities for the development of the agribusiness sector in AP Vojvodina 142-451-2316/2022-01/01 financed by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development APV
Sažetak
Cilj istraživanja je da se utvrde stanje i tendencije u kretanju proizvodnih karakteristika pšenice i kukuruza u Srbiji u periodu od 2005-2020 godine. Analizirani su površina, prinos i ukupna proizvodnja. Za utvrđivanje stanja i tendencija posmatranih obeležja korišćena je deskriptivna statistika. Za predviđanje vrednosti obeležja u periodu 2021-2023 godina korišćena su dva metoda: ARIMA model i ekstrapolacija prosečne stope promene analizirane pojave. ARIMA model nije dao zadovoljavajuće rezultate usled kratke vremenske serije koja je analizirana. Primenom ekstrapolacije prosečne stope promene, autori su zaključili da je prinos kukuruza i pšenice u analiziranom periodu ispoljio tendenciju rasta, pri čemu su površine oba useva ispoljile tendenciju pada. Ukupna proizvodnja pšenice i kukuruza imaju tendenciju rasta za vreme perioda predikcije u odnosu na višegodišnje proseke analiziranog perioda. Rezultati predviđanja ukazuju da je za očekivati 15,54% veći obim proizvodnje pšenice, a kukuruza povećanje za 28,41%.
Abstract
The aim of the research is to determine the state and tendencies in the movement of production parameters of wheat and corn in Serbia for the period from 2005-2020. Analyzed parameters are harvested area, yield and total production. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the state and tendencies of the observed features. In order to predict the value of production parameters from 2021 to 2023, two methods were used: ARIMA model and extrapolation of the average rate of change of the analyzed parameters. Since the ARIMA model did not give satisfactory results due to a short time series (16 years), annual rates of change were used to extrapolate the production characteristics for the period 2021-2023. Using extrapolation of the average rate of change, the authors concluded that the yield of corn and wheat in the analyzed period showed a tendency to grow, with the areas of both crops showing a tendency to fall. Total wheat and corn production have a tendency to grow when compared with the averages of the analyzed period in previous years. The results of the forecast indicate that the volume of wheat production is expected to be 15.54% higher, and the volume of corn 28.41%, during the prediction period in relation to the multi-year averages of the analyzed period.
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