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2020, vol. 24, br. 2, str. 45-49
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Analiza i predviđanje proizvodnih obeležja važnijih vrsta žita u Srbiji
Analysis and forecast of the production parameters of major cereal crops in Serbia
Projekat: This paper is part of the project No. 142-451-2407/2019-03 financed by the APV Provincial Secretariat for Higher Education and Scientific Research.
Sažetak
Predmet istraživanja u ovom radu su proizvodna obeležja, odnosno površine, godišnja proizvodnja i prinosi najzastupljenijih vrsta žita u Srbiji u intervalu od 2005 do 2018. godine. Cilj istraživanja je da se utrvdi obim, stabilnost i tendencije proizvodnih parametara proizvodno i ekonomski najvažnijih vrsta žita i da se na osnovu toga predvidi njihova promena u periodu od narednih pet godina (2019-23). Analizirani su: kukuruz, pšenica, ječam, ovas, raž i tritikale. U radu je primenjena desktriptivna analiza proizvodnih karakteristika značajnijih vrsta žita. Na osnovu rezultata deskriptivne statistike su predviđene vrednosti proizvodnih obeležja za narednih pet godina (2019-2023). Predviđanje je urađeno na bazi prosečnih godišnjih stopa promene (r) koje su primenjene na prosečnu vrednost pojave u posmatranom vremenskom interval. Stopa nije primenjena na poslednju godinu, zato što postoje velika variranja pojava pa bi se dobili nerealni rezultati uzrokovani specifičnošću poslednje godine. Na osnovu primenjene metodologije i dobijenih rezultata može se zaključiti da kukuruz ima veoma stabilne površine i tendenciju blagog smanjenja. Prozvodnja je manje stabilna, što je posledica variranja prinosa i ima slabo izraženu tendenciju pada. Pšenica je daleko stabilnija po svim posmatranim parametrima. Svi proizvodni parametri imaju tendencije blagog povećanja. Od ostalih žita jedino tritikale ima pozitivne tendencije kod sva tri obeležja, dok kod ostalih površine se smanjuju, a prinosi rastu, što za posledicu ima rast proizvodnje kod ječma i pad proizvodnje kod ovsa i raži.
Abstract
This paper deals with the production parameters of major cereal crops in Serbia (namely the cultivation area, annual production and yields of the cereal crops considered) in the period 2005-2018. The objective of this study was to determine trends in and the volume and stability of the production parameters of the most important cereal crops in Serbia. Furthermore, a forecast of changes in the parameters observed was made for the five-year period 2019-2023. The following cereal crops were under consideration: corn, wheat, barley, oats, rye and triticale. The area devoted to corn in Serbia was found to be very stable, indicating a slight downward trend. However, the Serbian corn production lacked stability due to variations in yield, suggesting a very slight downward trend. Wheat was found to be far more stable with slightly growing trends in all the parameters considered. Moreover, positive trends in all the parameters considered were also noticed in the Serbian triticale production.
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