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2019, vol. 16, br. 2, str. 139-154
Uzroci neuspeha Filipsove krive - da li je bitno da ekonomsko okruženje ne oscilira?
Istanbul University, Turkey

e-adresayhlas.sovbetov@ogr.iu.edu.tr
Sažetak
Iako je empirijska literatura koja se odnosi na Filipsovu krivu (the Phillips curve) značajnog obima, i dalje ne postoji konsenzus o validnosti i stabilnosti iste. U literaturi se navodi da je Filipsov odnos nestalan i da je drugačiji od zemlje do zemlje i u različitim vremenskim periodima; statistički odnos koji se u toku jedne decenije (u nekoj zemlji) čini jakim, može biti slab u narednoj/nekoj drugoj. Razlozi za ovu nestalnosti mogu biti osnova za osobenosti neke zemlje i njenog ekonomskog okruženja. Kako bismo se pozabavili ovom temom, u radu smo detaljno istražili Filipsov odnos u 41 zemlji tokom perioda 1980-2016, obraćajući pažnju na dinamiku inflacije tokom perioda bez većih oscilacija i recesije. Kao rezultat, u radu je zaključeno da Filipsov odnos varira, u zavisnosti od zemlje i vremenskog perioda. Dokazano je da je taj odnos važeći za većinu razvijenih zemalja, dok nije primenjiv u zemljama u razvoju i nerazvijenim zemljama, tokom perioda bez većih oscilacija. S druge strane, odnos je nepostojeći tokom perioda recesije, čak i na razvijenim tržištima. Ovo dokazuje da je period bez većih oscilacija u ekonomskom okruženju od izuzetnog značaja, kako bi Filipsov balans funkcionisao bez problema. Štaviše, frakcije - očekivane inflacije i inflacije u prethodnom periodu, značajno se uvećavaju tokom perioda recesije kao rezultat toga što Filipsov koeficijent gubi na značaju u okviru modela. Ovo ukazuje na činjenicu da su tržišta osetljivija na inflaciju tokom ovih perioda.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/EJAE16-21569
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 27.10.2019.
metod recenzije: dvostruko anoniman
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