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2015, vol. 9, iss. 1, pp. 159-176
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Serbia's credit market: Tiredness or collapse?
Kreditno tržište Srbije - posustajanje ili kolaps
Project: European integrations and social and economic changes in Serbian economy on the way to the EU (MESTD - 47009)
Challenges and Prospects of Structural Changes in Serbia: Strategic Directions for Economic Development and Harmonization with EU Requirements (MESTD - 179015)
Abstract
The contractions in the Serbian credit market analyzed in this paper affect banking as well as real sector. Declining of domestic banks' credit businesses was especially emphasized in the last year's IMF report (IMF, 2013), but in the meantime domestic credit flows have additionally withered. Therefore, the question arises whether it is a temporary lagging or the collapse of this market? The performed analysis has offered an answer: Serbian credit market is not collapsing, but it is showing long-term lagging. The financial crisis and the recession disable market revival, while occasional periods of domestic economy's anemic recovery go without a major credit support from the banks (creditless recovery). The structure of this paper is accommodated to the defined goal: firstly, the ratio between credit and economic recovery is investigated (1), then the definition of Serbian credit market (2) and its dynamics (3) is analysed, as a base for evaluating the trend and giving forecast about this market (4). Key research data and recommendations about the monetary policy are given in the conclusion (5).
Sažetak
U ovom radu analizirane su kontrakcije kreditnog tržišta Srbije, koje pogađaju kako bankarski, tako i realni sektor. Opadanje kreditnih poslova domaćih banaka posebno je apostrofirano u prošlogodišnjem izveštaju MMF-a (IMF, 2013), ali su u međuvremenu domaći kreditni tokovi dodatno usahli. Zbog toga se nameće pitanje da li se radi o privremenom posustajanju ili kolapsu ovog tržišta? Izvršena analiza pružila je odgovor: kreditno tržište Srbije nije pred kolapsom, ali dugoročno posustaje. Finanijska kriza i recesija onemogućavaju oživljavanje ovog tržišta, dok se povremeni periodi anemičnog oporavka domaće ekonomije odvijaju bez veće kreditne podrške banaka (beskreditni oporavak). Struktura ovog rada prilagođena je postavljenom cilju: prvo je istražen odnos kredita i ekonomskog oporavka (1), zatim je izvršeno određenje kreditnog tržišta Srbije (2) i analizirana njegova dinamika (3), kao osnov za procenu trenda i prognozu kretanja na ovom tržištu (4). Ključni istraživački nalazi i preporuke za monetarnu politiku dati su u zaključku (5).
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