- citati u SCIndeksu: [2]
- citati u CrossRef-u:[1]
- citati u Google Scholaru:[
]
- posete u poslednjih 30 dana:6
- preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:5
|
|
2014, vol. 8, br. 2, str. 277-300
|
Analiza uzroka globalne platnobilansne neravnoteže
Analysis of the cause of global balance of payment imbalance
Projekat: Mogućnosti poboljšanja intelektualnih, motoričkih i kardio-respiratornih sposobnosti dece pomoću kinezioloških aktivnosti (MPNTR - 179011) Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU (MPNTR - 47009)
Sažetak
Privreda SAD-a decenijama unazad ima hroničan deficit tekućeg dela platnog bilansa koji je posledica deficita spoljnotrgovinske razmene. Rekordna vrednost deficita je zabeležena u 2006. godini (798,5 mlrd. USD), kada je udeo Kine u spoljnotrgovinskom deficitu SAD-a iznosio 32%. Otuda je razvijena diskusija o održivosti trgovinskog deficita SAD-a, kao i debata ko je glavni krivac za globalne platnobilansne neravnoteže. Kini se stavlja na teret visok nivo štednje i politika depresirane nacionalne valute. S druge strane, SAD su tokom istorije koristile privilegiju dolara, kao svetske rezervne valute i zahvaljujući tome izgradile kult potrošačke privrede. Cilj rada je da se preispitaju ove tvrdnje, i da se na osnovu analize uzroka neravnoteže definišu ne samo glavne poluge nego i instrumenti da se te neravnoteže neutrališu. Analiza uključuje veći broj varijabli (deficit tekućeg bilansa, štednja, investicije, nivo kamatne stope, i dr.) za obe zemlje u vremenskom periodu 2000-2013. godine. Istraživanje je pokazalo da Kina plasmanom viška likvidnosti vrši obaranje referentne kamatne stope, ali isto tako da FED nije koristio druge instrumente za odbranu nivoa kamatne stope. FED je propisao nivo obaveznih rezervi ali nije poštovao propise već je dopustio da nivo rezervi bude niži, čime je prećutno dozvolio ekspanziju novčane mase i nizak nivo kamatne stope.
Abstract
For decades, the US economy have had a chronic current account deficit, which is a consequence of the high trade balance deficit. The highest value of the current account deficit was recorded in 2006 (798.5 billion USD), when the Chinese share in US trade deficit was 32%. Hence, there is a discussion about sustainability of the US trade deficit, as well as the debate about the most important perpetrator for global trade imbalances. China is accused because of the high saving level and depressed currency policy. On the other side, US used the historic privilege of USD as world reserve currency to build a cult of consumption economy. This paper aims to reconsider these statements and, based on the cause analysis of the disequilibrium, define not only the main levers, but also the instruments which can be used for neutralization of this global imbalance. The analysis for each country covers the period 2000-2013 and includes many variables, e.g. current account deficit, savings, investment, interest rate level, etc. The research showed that China brought the referent down interest rate with the investment of excess liquidity, and that the FED did not use any other instrument as a defence of the interest rate level. The FED prescribed the required reserve level, but it failed to respect the rules. The reserve level was allowed to be reduced and thus enabled money supply expansion and low interest rate level.
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
Antevski, M. (2012) Kina - tokovi i efekti stranih direktnih investicija. Međunarodni problemi, vol. 64, br. 4, str. 479-506
|
|
Bernanke, B. (2007) Speech: Global imbalances: Recent developments and prospects. Berlin, Germany: Bundesbank lecture
|
|
Browning, E.S. (2007) Exorcising ghosts of Octobers past. Wall Street Journal, New York, Dow Jones & Company
|
|
Filipović, S. (2014) Preispitivanje neoliberalnog koncepta u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana. Zbornik Univerziteta Edukons, Sremska Kamenica
|
13
|
Filipović, S. (2010) Efekti globalne finansijske krize na finansijski sektor Srbije. Industrija, vol. 38, br. 3, str. 79-94
|
|
Griswold, D. (2007) Are trade deficits a drag on U.S. economic growth?. Free Trade Bulletin, no. 27, Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies
|
1
|
Jakšić, M.P., Dimitrijević, B.S., Fabris, N., Praščević, A. (2001) Savremena makroekonomska misao. Beograd: Čigoja štampa
|
1
|
Krugman, P. (2007) Will there be a dollar crisis?. Economic Policy, 22(51): 436-467
|
|
Ma, G., Yang, T.D. (2013) China's Hing saving-puzzle. Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor
|
|
Ma, G., Yi, W. (2010) China's high saving rate: Myth and reality. Basel, Switzerland: BIS
|
|
Morrison, W.M. (2014) China-U.S. trade issues. Washington, DC: Congessional Research Service
|
|
Perelstein, J.S. (2009) Macroeconomic Imbalances in the United States and Their Impact on the International Financial System. New York: Levy Institute
|
|
Serrano, F. (2003) The US account deficit under the floating dollar standard. http://www.networkideas.org/news/oct2003/news14_US_Deficit_FDS.htm
|
|
Summers, L.H. (2006) Reflections on global account imbalances and emerging markets reserve accumulation. u: L. K. Jha Memorial Lecture, India: Reserve Bank of India
|
|
Trichet, J. (2005) Reflections on the international financial system: Speech by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB. Berlin, Germany: Bundesbank Lecture
|
|
Troutman, K. (2013) A world of known unknowns: A closer look at the allocation of China's foreign exchange reserves. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, http://blogs.piie.com/china/?p=3639
|
|
Verick, S., Islam, I. (2010) The great recession of 2008-2009: Causes, consequences and policy responses. Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor
|
|
|
|