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2003, vol. 32, br. 7-8, str. 20-35
Ocena rizika izbijanja bankarskih kriza
Centar za naučno-istraživački rad Privredne komore Srbije
Ključne reči: bankarska kriza; poreklo krize; slabost; ekonomski troškovi; devizni kurs; pokazatelj krize; cene akcija; cene aktive
Sažetak
Većina zemalja se, u poslednjoj deceniji, susrela sa sistemskim bankarskim krizama. Ne samo da su ove krize izvršile značajan udar na budžet, vršeći pritisak na poreze, već su one značajno uticale i na rast društvenog proizvoda. U literaturi su dati mnogi predlozi kako da se ograniče troškovi kriza, ali nije bilo dovoljno napora da se proveri kako ovi predlozi funkcionišu u praksi. Dok precizno utvrđivanje momenta kada će se javiti kriza još uvek izmiče istraživačima, nema sumnje da je potrebno da se razvije i unapredi sistem ranog upozorenja, kako bi se znalo kada zemlja klizi u krizu. Potreba boljeg sistema nadgledanja je očigledna u svetlu najnovije snažne azijske krize. Bankarske krize, tokom poslednje dve decenije, postale su češće i oštrije, kako u zemljama sa tržištem u nastajanju, tako i u razvijenim zemljama. Njihovi troškovi iskazani preko gubitaka u društvenom proizvodu su bili visoki. Zbog toga su u novije vreme učinjeni značajni napori da se razviju "pokazatelji ranog upozorenja" krize, kako bi kreatori ekonomske politike mogli da na vreme preduzmu određene akcije. U prvom delu ovog članka obrazlažu se konceptualni okviri poremećaja u bankarskom sistemu. Zatim se, u drugom delu, ukratko ukazuje na poreklo bankarskih kriza. U trećem delu se objašnjava izbor pokazatelja i ocenjuju njihove karakteristike. U završnom delu se iznose neke preporuke za analitičare i predlažu područja daljih istraživanja.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: neklasifikovan
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 02.06.2007.