2014, vol. 48, br. 4, str. 583-600
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Da li je Mirko M. Kosić predvideo Veliki rat 1914?
Is Mirko M. Kosić predicted the Great War in 1914?
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Filozofski fakultet, Odeljenje za sociologiju, Srbija
Keywords: Mirko M. Kosic; prediction; structural symmetry of explanation and prediction; The Great War; 'Pangermanism' and 'Modern Germany'
Sažetak
Rad razmatra opasku Jovice Trkulje da je Mirko M. Kosić predvideo ratni sukob 1914. godine. Pitanje je, najpre, otvorilo još nekoliko pitanja. Da li je uopšte moguće predviđanje u nauci, pre svega, u društvenim naukama? Ako je moguće, šta se pod njim podrazumeva? A imajući sve to u vidu - da li je Mirko M. Kosić u svojim radovima 'Pangermanizam' i 'Moderna Germanija' zaista predvideo ratni sukob? Uvažavajući tezu o strukturalnoj simetriji objašnjenja i predviđanja, te imajući u vidu osobenost predviđanja u poretku društvene stvarnosti, autor u svojoj analizi pokazuje da je odgovor na pitanje postavljeno u naslovu ovog rada potvrdan. Stoga, celi vek nakon Velikog rata, može se reći da je legat domaće sociologije bogatiji za predviđanje koje, na izvestan način, predstavlja ponos ne samo domaće sociologije, već i nauke uopšte.
Abstract
This paper answers the question which was raised in one of the posts of Jovica Trkulja, actually in one of his statements according to which Mirko Kosic predicted the war in 1914. The mentioned question had in the first place opened several more questions. Is it actually possible to predict anything in the science especially in social science? If it is possible what dose it imply? Eventually, keeping all that in mind did Mirko Kosic really predict the war in his papers 'Panermenism' and 'Modern Germany' according to Trkulja? Taking into consideration the thesis about structural symmetry of explanation and prediction as well as the characteristic order of social reality, then the answer is affirmative. Therefore, it can be said that the whole century after the Great War the legacy of domestic sociology but the pride of the science in general as well. Above all, with this paper Mirko M. Kosic is established as a paradigm of thinking and readiness for a sociologist to abandon the research conformism.
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