Metrics

  • citations in SCIndeks: 0
  • citations in CrossRef:0
  • citations in Google Scholar:[]
  • visits in previous 30 days:5
  • full-text downloads in 30 days:5

Contents

article: 6 from 52  
Back back to result list
2019, vol. 74, iss. 5, pp. 697-703
Short-term forecasting of express service volume using Holt-Winters model
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering

emaildrdd.93@gmail.com
Keywords: planning; forecasting; Holt-Winters model; seasonal variations; trend; time
Abstract
The success of the postal business depends on the large number of factors and takes place under different influences on the local and global level. This paper focuses on the express market as a very significant segment of the Postal market. The accent was placed on forecasting the scope of operations of this service, as the input size of the planning process for the postal network resources. Reliable forecast responds to the needs for future capabilities and presents input data for creating plans, which is of great importance for mail business. The planning process of the postal system implies a large number of technical and commercial type decisions. The decisions are mainly based on knowledge of the number of current and potential users, in other words, on knowledge future demand for postal services. In this paper, the multiplicative Holt-Winters model is used to forecast the express services in international traffic in Serbia. A comparison of the obtained results with the Method of Moving Averages was conducted.
References
*** Exponential smoothing methods. http://personal.cb.cityu.edu.hk/msawan/teaching/ms6215/Exponential%20Smoothing%20Methods.pdf, citirano 20.08.2019
*** Holt Winters. http://www.matf.bg.ac.rs/p/files/1508-839531-69-HoltWinters.pdf, citirano 20.08.2019
*** Holt-Winters forecasting: A study of practical applications for healthcare managers. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a473648.pdf, citirano 20.08.2019
Bojović, N. (2016) Stohastički modeli prognoziranja. Univerzitet u Beogradu, Saobraćajni Fakultet
Cortez, P., Rio, M., Sousa, P., Rocha, M. (2012) Forecasting internet traffic by neural networks under univariate and multivariate strategies. Expert systems, 29(2): 143-155
Gundalia, M., Dholakia, M. (2012) Prediction of maximum/minimum temperatures using Holt Winters method with Excel Spread Sheet for Junagadh Region. International journal of engineering research & technology, Vol 1, No 6 pp. 1-8
Kozłovski, E., Mazurkiewicz, D., Kowalska, B., Kowalski, D. (2018) Application of Holt-Winters method in water consumption prediction. in: Innowacje w zarządzaniu i inżynierii produkcji, Oficyna Wydawnicza Polskiego Towarzystwa Zarządzania Produkcją, pp.627-634
Lepojević, V., Anđelković-Pešić, M. (2011) Forecasting electricity consumption by using holt-winters and seasonal regression models. Facta universitatis - series: Economics and Organization, vol. 8, br. 4, str. 421-431
Milutinović, J., Radojičić, V. (2016) The importance of forecasting in the process of developing a new postal service. International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering, Vol. 6, No.4, pp. 474-494
Radojičić, V., Bakmaz, B. (2010) Primena kvantitativnih metoda prognoziranja u telekomunikacijama. Beograd: Saobraćajni fakultet
Rubab, S., Hassan, M.F., Mahmood, A.K., Shah, S.N.M. (2015) Forecasting volunteer grid workload using Holt-Winters' method. in: 2015 International Symposium on Technology Management and Emerging Technologies (ISTMET), Langkawi, Kedah, Malaysia: IEEE, pp. 422-426
Salkić, S., Dedić, S. (2010) Procena kretanja troškova termoenergetskog objekta Holt-Wintersovim modelom eksponencijalnog izglađivanja i naivnim modelom. Časopis za ekonomiju i biznis, No 15, pp. 58-71
Tirkeş, G., Güraj, C., Çelebi, N. (2017) Demand forecasting: A comparison between the Holt-Winters: Trend analysis and decomposition models. Tehnički Vjesnik, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp.503-509
Veiga, C., Catapan, A., Tortato, U., Silva, W. (2014) Demand forecasting in food retail: a comparison between the Holt-Winters and ARIMA models. WSEAS transactions on business and economics, 11: 608-614
Yakovyna, V., Bachkai, O. The comparison of Holt-Winters and Box-Jenkins methods for software failures prediction. in: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, Vol 2136, http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2136/10000090.pdf, citirano 20.08.2019
 

About

article language: Serbian
document type: Original Scientific Paper
DOI: 10.5937/tehnika1905697D
published in SCIndeks: 09/11/2019
Creative Commons License 4.0

Related records

No related records