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2019, vol. 74, iss. 5, pp. 697-703
Short-term forecasting of express service volume using Holt-Winters model
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
Keywords: planning; forecasting; Holt-Winters model; seasonal variations; trend; time
The success of the postal business depends on the large number of factors and takes place under different influences on the local and global level. This paper focuses on the express market as a very significant segment of the Postal market. The accent was placed on forecasting the scope of operations of this service, as the input size of the planning process for the postal network resources. Reliable forecast responds to the needs for future capabilities and presents input data for creating plans, which is of great importance for mail business. The planning process of the postal system implies a large number of technical and commercial type decisions. The decisions are mainly based on knowledge of the number of current and potential users, in other words, on knowledge future demand for postal services. In this paper, the multiplicative Holt-Winters model is used to forecast the express services in international traffic in Serbia. A comparison of the obtained results with the Method of Moving Averages was conducted.
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*** Holt-Winters forecasting: A study of practical applications for healthcare managers., citirano 20.08.2019
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article language: Serbian
document type: Original Scientific Paper
DOI: 10.5937/tehnika1905697D
published in SCIndeks: 09/11/2019
Creative Commons License 4.0

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