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2020, vol. 49, iss. 4, pp. 17-34
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Epidemiological characteristics and trends of birth movements in Serbia
Epidemiološke karakteristike i trend kretanja porođaja u Srbiji
aUniversity of Kragujevac, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Department of Social Medicine bAkademija strukovnih studija Beograd, odsek Visoka zdravstvena škola strukovnih studija, Beograd cDom zdravlja Topola dSpecijalna bolnica za hiperbaričnu medicinu, Vrnjačka Banja eDom zdravlja Gornji Milanovac fDom zdravlja Lapovo gUniversity of Kragujevac, Faculty of Medical Sciences
email: jovanarad@yahoo.com
Abstract
Introduction/Aim: In recent decades, declines in fertility rates have been reported in almost every country in the world. The aim of the research is the analysis of epidemiological characteristics and childbirth trends in Serbia in the period 2007-2016. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive, epidemiological study. The research data were collected from the Health Statistical Yearbooks of the Institute of Public Health of the Republic of Serbia "Dr Milan Jovanovic Batut" in the period 2007-2016. Total fertility rates, stillbirth rates, birth rates, infant mortality rates, and preterm birth rates were used for the analysis of data, while the linear trend and regression analysis were used to analyze the trend. Results: Average rate of general fertility in Serbia in the period 2007-2016 was 1.5 children per woman. In the period 2007-2016, 660,069 births were registered in Serbia with a total of 671,715 children born, of which 4,054 were stillborn (0.6%). Two thirds (66.1%) of stillborn children were born prematurely. The number of premature births increased with maternal age. Of 667,661 live births in maternity hospitals, 924 newborns died (0.1%). In the observed period, a continuous trend of decreasing number of births was registered (y = 68,427-439.99x, R2 = 0.628), as well as the number of live births (y = 69,084-421.44x, R2 = 0.591). The trend of still birth rates showed a slight decrease (y = 6,138-0,012x, R2 = 0,016), as well as the trend of infant mortality rates (y = 1,882-50,091x, R2 = 0,683), but there came to an increase in the trend of the general fertility rate (y = 39.481 + 0.242x, R2 = 0.544). The average general fertility rate for the ten-year period was 41.1 live births per 1000 women of the fertile period and ranged from 38.2‰ to 41.7‰. The largest increase in the fertility rate was registered in the age group 40-44 years from 3.8‰ in 2007 to 9.9‰ in 2016 (2.6 times more), and then in the age group 30-39 years with 43.2‰ in 2007 to 63.0 ‰ in 2016 (1.4 times more). There came to a decline in the fertility rate at the age of 20-29 from 80.4‰ in 2007 to 72.2 ‰ in 2016. The highest rates of stillbirth were registered in the oldest group of 45-49 years (23.3 ‰), and the lowest in persons younger than 15 years (0.7‰). Conclusion: Birth revitalization policies must engage all levels of society to build awareness and moral responsibility for fertility.
Sažetak
Uvod/Cilj: U poslednjih nekoliko decenija pad stope fertiliteta je zabeležen u gotovo svim državama sveta. Cilj istraživanja je analiza epidemioloških karakteristika i trenda kretanja porođaja u Srbiji u periodu 2007-2016. godine. Metode: Istraživanje je dizajnirano kao deskriptivna epidemiološka studija. Podaci su preuzeti iz Zdravstveno statističkih godišnjaka za period 2007-2016. godine. U analizi podataka korišćene su opšta stopa fertiliteta, stopa mortinataliteta, stopa rađanja, stopa mortaliteta odojčadi i stopa prevremenih porođaja, a trend stopa analiziran je korišćenjem jednačine linearnog trenda. Rezultati: Prosečna stopa opšteg fertiliteta u Srbiji u periodu 2007-2016. godine je bila 1,5 deteta po ženi. U periodu 2007-2016. godine u Srbiji je registrovano 660.069 porođaja sa ukupno 671.715 rođene dece, od kojih je 4.054 mrtvorođeno (0,6%). Dve trećine (66,1%) mrtvorođene dece je bilo prevremeno rođeno. Sa starošću porodilja raste broj prevremenih porođaja. Od 667.661 živorođenih u porodilištima je umrlo 924 novorođenčadi (0,1%). U posmatranom periodu registruje se kontinuirani trend opadanja broja porođaja (y=68.427-439,99x, R2 =0,628), kao i broja živorođene dece (y=69.084-421,44x, R2 =0,591). Trend stopa mrtvorođenih (mortinataliteta) pokazuje neznatno opadanje (y=6,138-0,012x, R2 =0,016), kao i trend stopa mortaliteta novorođenčadi (y=1,882-50,091x, R2 =0,683), ali dolazi do porasta trenda opšte stope fertiliteta (y=39,481+0,242x, R2 =0,544). Prosečna opšta stopa fertiliteta za desetogodišnji period iznosila je 41,1 živorođenih na 1000 žena fertilnog perioda i kretala se od 38,2‰ do 41,7‰. Najveće povećanje stope fertiliteta beleži se u starosnoj grupi 40-44 godine sa 3,8‰ u 2007. godini na 9,9‰ u 2016. godini (2,6 puta više), a zatim u starosnoj grupi 30-39 godina sa 43,2‰ u 2007. godini na 63,0‰ u 2016. godini (1,4 puta više). Beleži se pad stope fertiliteta u starosnoj dobi 20-29 godina sa 80,4‰ u 2007. godini na 72,2‰ u 2016. godini. Najveće stope mrtvorođenosti (mortinataliteta) beleže se u najstarijoj grupi 45-49 godine (23,3‰), a najniža kod osoba mlađih od 15 godina (0,7‰). Zaključak: Mere politike prema revitalizaciji rađanja moraju angažovati sve nivoe društva na izgradnji svesti i moralne odgovornosti prema fertilitetu.
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