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2020, vol. 1, iss. 1, pp. 21-34
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The HIV/AIDS epidemiological situation among men and women in Serbia in the period 2007-2017: Joinpoint regression analysis
Epidemiološka situacija HIV/AIDS-a među muškarcima i ženama u Srbiji za period 2007-2017. godine - joinpoint regresiona analiza
aUniversity of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Epidemiology bUniversity of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine cInstitute of Public Health of Serbia 'dr Milan Jovanović-Batut', Belgrade
email: sandra.grujicic2014@gmail.com
Project: Epidemiological investigations of risk factors for selected diseases (MESTD - 175042)
Abstract
Introduction: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a global major health problem. According to the data for 2018, there were 37.9 million people living with HIV/AIDS in the world, and the number of deaths related to AIDS was about 770,000. Aim: The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of newly diagnosed HIV-infected people, AIDS patients and AIDS-related deaths among men and women in Serbia, for the period 2007-2017. Materials and methods: Data on newly diagnosed HIV-infected people, AIDS patients and AIDS-related deaths were taken from the Report on Infectious Diseases in the Republic of Serbia. Age-specific and standardized mortality and incidence rates (standardized according to the world population) were calculated based on the data obtained. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine the trend. Results: The average standardized rates of newly diagnosed HIV-infected people (per 100,000) in Serbia, for the period 2007-2017, were 3.4 for men and 0.8 for women. There was a significant annual increase in standardized rates of newly diagnosed HIV-infected people; 7.0% for men and 21.1% for women. The average standardized rates (per 100,000) of AIDS incidence were 0.9 for men and 0.2 for women. There was a significant annual increase of 4.9% in the standardized incidence rate of AIDS in men, and a significant decrease of -12.2% in women. The average standardized mortality rates from AIDS (per 100,000) were 0.4 for men and 0.1 for women. During the observation period, there were no significant changes in the standardized mortality rates from AIDS in men, while in women there was a significant decline of -13.9% per year. The most common route of HIV transmission in men was sexual intercourse with men (69.0%), and in women it was heterosexual intercourse (75.7%). Conclusion: Further work is needed, primarily in advancing preventive measures, particularly by educating young people about transmission pathways and risks, but also in the early detection of HIV-infected persons and timely treatment.
Sažetak
Uvod: U svetu, prema podacima za 2018. godinu, HIV/AIDS (engl. Human Immunodeficiency Virus - HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome - AIDS) predstavlja veliki javnozdravstveni problem jer oko 37,9 miliona ljudi živi sa HIV/AIDS-om, a broj umrlih usled bolesti i stanja povezanih sa AIDS-om je oko 770.000. Cilj: Cilj rada je bio da se analizira kretanje novodijagnostikovanih inficiranih HIV-om i obolelih i umrlih od AIDS-a među muškarcima i ženama u Srbiji za period 2007 - 2017. godine. Materijal i metode: Podaci o novodijagnostikovanim osobama pozitivnim na HIV, obolelima i umrlima od AIDS-a, preuzeti su iz Izveštaja o zaraznim bolestima u Republici Srbiji. Na osnovu dobijenih podataka izračunate su uzrasno-specifične i standardizovane stope (standardizovane prema populaciji sveta incidencije i mortaliteta). Za ispitivanje trenda je korišćena joinpoint regresiona analiza. Rezultati: Prosečne standardizovane stope novodijagnostikovanih osoba inficiranih HIV-om (na 100.000) u Srbiji, za period 2007 - 2017, bile su 3,4 za muškarce i 0,8 za žene. Kod muškaraca je prisutan značajan godišnji porast standardizovanih stopa novodijagnostikovanih osoba inficiranih HIV-om od 7%, a kod žena od 21,1%. Prosečne standardizovane stope (na 100.000) incidencije AIDS-a bile su 0,9 za muškarce i 0,2 za žene. Prisutan je značajan godišnji porast standardizovane stope incidencije AIDS-a kod muškaraca od 4,9%, a značajan pad od -12,2% kod žena. Prosečne standardizovane stope mortaliteta od AIDS-a (na 100.000) bile su 0,4 za muškarce i 0,1 za žene. U posmatranom periodu nema značajnih promena standardizovanih stopa mortaliteta od AIDS-a kod muškaraca, dok je kod žena prisutan značajan pad od -13,9% godišnje. Najčešći put prenosa HIV infekcije kod muškaraca bio je seksualni odnos sa muškarcima (69,0%), a kod žena heteroseksualni odnos (75,7%). Zaključak: Potrebno je dalje raditi na unapređenju preventivnih mera, posebno edukaciji mladih o putevima prenošenja i rizicima, kao i na ranom otkrivanju osoba inficiranih HIV-om i pravovremenom lečenju.
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