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2008, vol. 5, br. 1, str. 19-42
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Pokazatelji cena na tržištima akcija
Price indicators in stock markets
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Ekonomski fakultet, Srbija
Ključne reči: berze; cena akcija; Dow Jones prosek; proseci cena akcija; indeksi cena akcija
Sažetak
Na svim berzama postoji veliki broj investitora, malih i velikih, koji pokušavaju da pronađu pravo rešenje za alhemiju berzanskih cena. Na taj način pokušavaju da pobede berzu i ostvare zaradu kroz razliku između prodajnih i kupovnih cena berzanskog materijala. Radi boljeg upoznavanja postojećeg stanja i, posebno, radi predviđanja budućih promena berzanskih cena, koriste se različiti analitički aparati. Jedan od osnovnih pokazatelja opšteg stanja na nekoj berzi jeste dostignuti nivo cena i promene cena u posmatranom vremenskom razdoblju. U takvim analizama se koriste brojni pokazatelji, a svi se mogu svrstati u dve osnovne grupe: berzanski prosed i indeksi. Smisao i jednih i drugih je da pruže pouzdane informacije investitorima o (očekivanim) promenama cena na berzama. Berzanski prosed su jednostavniji za izračunavanje i stekli su veliku popularnost u prošlosti Međutim, zbog načina izračunavanja u savremenim uslovima, više pokazuju smer nego stepen promena cena na berzama. Proseci cena su zastupljeniji u stručnim analizama pošto daju verniju sliku o stepenu promena berzanskih cena. Osnovni nedostatak i jednih i drugih je što investitorima daju ex post podatke i ne pružaju najbitniju informaciju: šta se događa sa pojedinačnim cenama određenih berzanskih materijala.
Abstract
There are large numbers of investors, both large and small, in all stock exchanges, who are trying to find the right solution to the alchemy of stock prices. In this way, they are trying to beat the market and make a profit through differences between selling and buying prices of items on the stock exchange. Various analytical devices are used for the purposes of better acquaintance with the current situation and, especially, for predicting future changes in stock prices. One of the basic indicators of the general situation on a given stock exchange is the achieved level of prices and price changes during an observed time period. Numerous indicators are used in such analyses, and all can be classified into two basic groups: stock exhange averages and indexes. The meaning of both is to offer reliable information to investors about (expected) price changes on stock exchanges. Exchange averages are simpler to calculate and have been highly popular in the past. However, due to the present-day methods of calculating, they tend to show more the direction than the degree of price changes on stock exchanges. Price averages are more common in expert analyses, since they provide a clearer picture of the degree of stock exchange price variations. The basic shortcoming of both methods is that they provide investors with ex post facto data, without providing the most important information: what is happening with individual prices of certain stock exchange items.
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