- citati u SCIndeksu: 0
- citati u CrossRef-u:0
- citati u Google Scholaru:[
 ]
- posete u poslednjih 30 dana:14
- preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:5
|
|
|
2004, vol. 47, br. 3-4, str. 167-190
|
|
Makroekonomska politika u uslovima naftnih šokova
Macroeconomic policy under the conditions of oil shocks
Sažetak
Ovaj rad predstavlja pokušaj da se netehnički obuhvate i prezentuju osnovne ideje, izazovi, problemi i zaključci korpusa teorija koje su usmerene na istraživanje sprege između makroekonomske politike i naftnih šokova, kombinujući teorijske argumente sa empirijskim/istorijskim dokumentovanjem koje bi samo po sebi trebalo da podupre ali i testira naučne postavke. Rezultati poluvekovnih istraživačkih napora i živopisne prakse mogli bi se sažeti u sledećem: veza između rasta cene nafte na svetskom tržištu i performansi ekonomskog sistema, u prvom redu inflacionog bilansa, oslabila je tokom vremena, umnogome zahvaljujući tome što je makroekonomska politika postala daleko manje "prilagodljiva", odnosno monetarne i fiskalne vlasti prestale su da posežu za policy instrumentima kao odgovorima na sam šok; poligon za implementiranje makroekonomske politike u uslovima eksternog šoka tokom godina je svesno i značajno sužen budući daje praksa pokazala da makroekonomski stimulansi nisu adekvatna zamena realnom prilagođavanju; redefinisanje institucionalnog ambijenta, konsolidovanje svetskog monetarnog sistema te vidljivi rezultati programa uštede energije, korišćenja alternativnih energetskih izvora i smanjenja uvozne zavisnosti razvijenih zemalja doprineli su tome da naftni šok ostvaruje slabiji negativni prodor u otvorene ekonomije; strukturne promene na samom svetskom tržištu nafte u smislu slabljenja kartelske pozicije OPEC-a i razvoja sofisticiranih trgovinskih instrumenata posledirale su u diverzifikaciji rizika, te i umanjenim turbulencijama u pogledu cene nafte.
Abstract
This paper represents a non-technical and eclectic attempt at synthesizing and presenting fundamental features, challenges and conclusions of the niche of economic theory focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic policy and oil shocks. Results of more than five-decade long research and vivid practice can be summarized in the following: Relationship between an oil price shock and economic performance, most notably inflationary record, has weakened over time. This is predominantly due to the fact that macroeconomic management has become less "accommodative" of the oil price, i.e. monetary and fiscal authorities have stopped using policy instruments as a direct response the shock; Polygon for exercising macroeconomic policy during and after the oil price hikes has been consciously and considerably narrowed since the practice has shown that macroeconomic stimuli are not an adequate replacement for real adjustment; Redefining of institutional ambient, reshaping of the global monetary order, implementation of programs for energy-conservation and alternative fuels utilization, as well as a decrease in dependence on imported oil on the part of developed countries, have together resulted in oil shocks being less penetrative in the open economy; Structural changes in the world oil market, most notably diminishing strength of OPEC and the introduction of sophisticated trade instruments, have contributed to risk diversification, whereby oil price instability has been somewhat reduced.
|
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
1 
|
Bohi, D.R. (1989) Energy price shocks and macroeconomic performance. Washington: Resources for the Future
|
|
1
|
Cook, L.P., Surrey, J. (1977) Energy policy: Strategies for uncertainty. London: Martin Robertson
|
|
4
|
Energy Information Administration (2004) International Energy Outlook. www.eia.doe.gov
|
|
1
|
Energy Information Administration (2001) International Energy Annual, DOE/EIA-0219, www.eia.doe.gov
|
|
3
|
European Central Bank (2005) ECB Monthly Bulletin, January, February, March, April www.ecb.int
|
|
1
|
Fabritius, J.F.R., Petersen, E.C. (1983) OPEC responding and the economic impact of an increase in the price of oil. New York, itd: McGraw-Hill
|
|
|
Hamilton, J.D. (2004) Causes and consequences of the oil shock of August 2004. http://weber.ucsd.edu/~ihamilto/Qil Aug04.htm
|
|
|
Hamilton, J.D. (1996) This is what happened to the oil price/macro economy relation. Journal of Monetary Economics, Oct., http://weber.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto
|
|
3 
|
Hamilton, J.D. (2003) What is an oil shock?. Journal of Econometrics, 113(2): 363
|
|
|
Hamilton, J.D., Herrera, M.A. (2004) Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: The role of monetary policy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 36, pp. 265-286
|
|
1 
|
Hawdon, D. (1985) The changing structure of the world oil industry. London, itd: Croom Helm
|
|
1
|
Hooker, M.A. (2003) Are oil shocks inflationary?: Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime. Federal Reserve Board
|
|
1
|
Humpage, O., Pelz, E. (2002) Do enery-price shocks affect core-price measures. Cleveland: Federal Reserve Bank, Working Paper, 02-15
|
|
1
|
Hutchinson, M.M. (1992) Aggregate demand, uncertainty and oil prices: The 1990 oil shock in comparative perspective. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Economic Papers, No 31
|
|
|
International Energy Agency (2003-2004) Monthly Oil Market Report. različiti brojevi
|
|
2
|
Jones, D.W., Leiby, P.N. (1996) The macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks: A review of literature and issues. Oak Bridge National Laboratory for the US - Department of energy
|
|
5
|
Josifidis, K.L. (2004) Makroekonomija - principi teorije politike. Beograd: Vedes
|
|
7
|
Josifidis, K.L., Đukić, Đ.T. (1998) Makroekonomija. Novi Sad: Futura publikacije
|
|
1
|
Kamps, C., Pierdzioch, C. (2002) Monetary policy rules and oil price shocks. Keil Institute of World Economics, Working Paper 1090
|
|
1
|
Leiby, P.N. (2003) Oil shocks and strategic oil shocks economics of energy security policy. u: USAEE policy symposium, follow-up, Cambridge, MA, itd: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press / MIT Press
|
|
1
|
Mattheissen, L. (1982) The impact of rising oil prices on the world economy. London-New York, itd: Macmillan Publishing
|
|
1
|
Morehouse, D.F. (1997) The intricate puzzle of oil and gas reserves growth: Energy information administration. Natural Gas Monthly, July
|
|
1
|
Mory, J.F. (1993) Oil prices and economic activity: Is the relationship symmetric. Energy Journal, No 4
|
|
|
Newman, S. (2002) The growth lobby & its absence: Appendix 3: energy and oil shocks. www. sustainability.dpc.wa.gov.au
|
|
|
OECD (2002-2004) Annual report. www.oecd.org
|
|
1
|
Rasche, R.H., Tatom, J.A. (1977) The effects of the new energy regime on economic capacity: Production, and prices. St. Louis: Federal Reserve Bank
|
|
|
Robinson, D., Bayoumi, T., Kumar, S., Manmohan, I., Macfarlan, M., Edison, H., Rourke, B., Hunt, B., Cheetham, X. (2000) The impact of higher oil prices on the global economy
|
|
|
Simurdić, B. (2000) Englesko-srpski ekonomsko-finansijski rečnik. Novi Sad: Europanon consulting
|
|
|
Ye, M., Zyren, J., Shore, J. (2003) Elasticity of demand for relative petroleum inventory in the short run. Atlantic Economic Journal, March
|
|
|
|
|