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2015, vol. 61, br. 3, str. 121-132
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Struktura izvoza i uvoza kao ograničavajući faktor u poboljšanju konkurentnosti Srbije
The structure of exports and imports as a limiting factor in improving the competitiveness of Republic Serbia
Sažetak
Cilj rada je da se regresionom analizom utvrdi koji su to proizvodi u petogodišnjem periodu imali najveći uticaj na kretanje vrednosti izvoza i uvoza (mereno u hiljadama US$), i izvrši uporedna analiza dobijenih rezultata. Analiza, pomoću statističko-ekonometrijske metodologije, obuhvatila je 30 robnih grupa na stani uvoza i 30 robnih grupa na strani izvoza sa učešćem većim od 100.000.000 US$ u periodu od 2009. do 2013. godine. Rad se sastoji od četiri konzistentne celine. Prva se odnosi na analizu osnovnih indikatora konkurentnosti, kako bi se ukazala važnost kretanja spoljnotrgovinskog deficita u ukupnoj oceni konkurentnosti jedne zemlje. Drugi i treći deo rada odnosi se na analizu izvoza i uvoza po robnim grupama i izdvajanje roba koje imaju najveći uticaj na njihovo kretanje u posmatranom periodu. U četvrtom delu rada urađena je komparativna analiza na osnovu dobijenih rezultata iz regresione analize.
Abstract
The aim of this work was to determine the regression analysis, which are products in the five-year period had the greatest impact on the values of exports and imports (measured in thousands of US $), and perform a comparative analysis of the results. The analysis, using statistical and econometric methodology, included the 30 commodity groups to stop imports and 30 commodity groups in exports with a share of more than US $ 100 million in the period from 2009 to 2013. The paper consists of four consistent whole. The first relates to the analysis of the main indicators of competitiveness, in order to show the importance of foreign trade deficit movement in the overall competitiveness of a country. The second and third part of the paper deals with the analysis of exports and imports by commodity groups and allocation of goods that have the greatest impact on their movements in the period. In the fourth part of the work was done on the basis of a comparative analysis of the results obtained from the regression analysis.
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