Serbia: Two years of fiscal consolidation: Results and medium-term sustainability issues

Vujović, Dušan

doi:10.5937/ekopre1702025V

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Ekonomika preduzeća

2017, vol. 65, br. 1-2, str. 25-41

Srbija - dve godine fiskalne konsolidacije - rezultati i pitanja srednjoročne održivosti

Vujović Dušan

Ministry of Finance Government of the Republic of Serbia + Univerzitet Singidunum, FEFA - Fakultet za ekonomiju, finansije i administraciju - FEFA, Beograd, Srbija

Projekat:

Unapređenje konkurentnosti Srbije u procesu pristupanja Evropskoj uniji (MPNTR - 47028)

Ključne reči: fiskalna konsolidacija; fiskalni deficit; fiskalni stimul; javni dug; strukturne reforme; štednja; restriktivna fiskalna politika; ekspanzivna fiskalna politika; ekonomski rast; mere za smanjivanje rashoda; mere za povećanje prihoda

Sažetak

Program fiskalne konsolidacije u Srbiji zasniva se na sveobuhvatnom programu smanjenja rashoda, povećanju budžetskih prihoda i povezanim strukturnim reformama i politikama koje podržavaju ekonomski rast. Tokom prve dve godine programa ostvareni fiskalni rezultati prevazišli su originalne i revidirane ciljeve postavljene u MMF programu. U 2015. stvarni deficit (3.7 posto BDP) prebacuje cilj za 2.2 procentna poena. U 2016 realizacija je dalje unapređena tako da je stvarni deficit (1.36 posto BDP) bio za 2.6 procentnih poena bolji od plana. Ovaj rezultat sadrži strukturno poboljšanje deficita od 4.4 procentnih poena čime se prebacuje cilj programa godinu dana pre roka. U tome, prihodi doprinose 3.5 procentna poena, plate u javnom sektoru 1.0, penzije 0.6 a povećanje rashoda oduzima -0.7. Program je dobro delovao na ekonomski rast. Pad je preokrenut u trećem kvartalu i oživljavanje je krenulo krajem 2014 i početkom 2015 tako da je za celu godinu ostvaren rast od +0.8 posto. Rast se dalje oporavio tokom 2016 (+2.8 posto), očekuje se da bude 3.0 posto u 2017. i da se stabilizuje na oko 3.5 posto nakon toga. Ovakvim performansama Srbija može da postane primer tzv. 'ekspanzivne štednje' koji pokazuje da programi fiskalne konsolidacije napravljeni na zdravim ekonomskim principima i sinhronizovani sa važnim strukturnim reformama i politikama mogu da generišu ekonomski rast. Pažljivo odmeravanje smanjenja rashoda kombinovano naporima za povećanje prihoda mogu da imaju pozitivno dejstvo na rast čak i u najtežim uslovima. Pitanja političke ekonomije programa fiskalne konsolidacije i strukturnih reformi dobijaju na značaju u drugoj godini programa, a posebno nekoliko meseci pred vanredne parlamentarne izbore. U tom kontekstu potrebno je kreativno razmišljati kako da se javnosti objasni da završetak teških i već započetih reformi predstavlja dobitnu kombinaciju za sve, dok gotovo svi gube ukoliko reforme budu zaustavljene ili napuštene.

Abstract

Fiscal consolidation in Serbia was based on a comprehensive, multiyear program built on broad-based expenditure cuts, better revenue performance, and related structural reforms and pro-growth policies. During the first two year of implementation the actual fiscal performance substantially exceeded the original and revised deficit targets set in the IMF supported three-year precautionary program. In 2015, the actual deficit (3.7 percent of GDP) exceeded program target by 2.2 percentage points. In 2016 the implementation performance further improved as the actual deficit (1.36 percent of GDP) was 2.6 percentage points better than the plan. The result implies a 4.4 percentage point structural deficit adjustment which exceeds the program target one year ahead of schedule. In this, revenues contribute 3.5 percentage points, public wages 1.0, pensions 0.6 and reversals of structural expenditure savings take away -0.7. The program had a beneficial impact on economic growth. The economy bottomed-out in the third quarter and started recovering in late 2014-early 2015 leading to a positive 0.8 percent growth for the entire year. The growth further recovered in 2016 (+2.8 percent) and is expected to reach 3 percent in 2017 and stabilize at 3.5 percent annually thereafter. With this performance Serbia may become a case of 'expansionary austerity' which demonstrates that fiscal consolidation programs designed in line with sound principles and synchronized with key structural reforms and pro-growth policies can generate growth. Carefully selected expenditure cuts combined with pro-growth revenue collection efforts can have expansionary effect on growth even under most difficult circumstances The political economy issues of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms gain increasing importance in the last year of the program, two months ahead of presidential elections. Fresh thinking is needed to demonstrate that the completion of difficult reforms is a win-win for all, and most everybody loses if reforms are stalled or abandoned.

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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekopre1702025V
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 21.05.2017.

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