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Ekonomika preduzeća
2016, vol. 64, br. 1-2, str. 1-13
Srbija - fiskalna konsolidacija - definisanje programa i polit-ekonomska pitanja
Vujović Dušan
Ministry of Finance Government of the Republic of Serbia + Univerzitet Singidunum, FEFA - Fakultet za ekonomiju, finansije i administraciju - FEFA, Beograd, Srbija
Projekat:
Unapređenje konkurentnosti Srbije u procesu pristupanja Evropskoj uniji (MPNTR - 47028)

Sažetak
Program fiskalne konsolidacije u Srbiji zasniva se na smanjenju rashoda, povećanju budžetskih prihoda i povezanim strukturnim reformama i politikama koje podržavaju ekonomski rast. Tokom 2015. godine ostvareni fiskalni rezultati prevazišli su originalne i revidirane ciljeve postavljene u MMF programu. Rezultirajući deficit od 3,7 posto BDP predstavlja veliko poboljšanje od 2,9 procentnih poena u odnosu na 2014. Ovaj rezultat sadrži strukturno poboljšanje deficita od 2,5 procentnih poena, od čega se 1,5 procentni poen odnosi na trajno smanjenje rashoda, a 1,0 procentni poen na strukturno povećanje prihoda. Ovim se povećava ostvarenje u prvoj godini i stvara dodatni prostor za realizaciju preostalih strukturnih reformi. Program je dobro delovao na ekonomski rast koji je ostvaren sa +0,8 posto, 1,3 procentnih poena iznad projekcija MMF i drugih MFO. Sa ovakvim performansama Srbija može da postane primer tzv. 'ekspanzivne štednje' koji pokazuje da programi fiskalne konsolidacje napravljeni na zdravim ekonomskim principima i sinhronizovani sa važnim strukturnim reformama i politikama mogu da generišu ekonomski rast. Pažljivo odmeravanje smanjenja rashoda kombinovano sa naporima za povećanje prihoda može da ima pozitivno dejstvo na rast čak i u najtežim uslovima. Pitanja političke ekonomije programa fiskalne konsolidacije i strukturnih reformi dobijaju na značaju u drugoj godini programa, a posebno nekoliko meseci pred vanredne parlamentarne izbore. U tom kontekstu potrebno je kreativno razmišljati kako da se javnosti objasni da završetak teških i već započetih reformi predstavlja dobitnu kombinaciju za sve, dok gotovo svi gube ukoliko reforme budu zaustavljene ili napuštene.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekopre1602001V
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 13.01.2017.

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