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2020, vol. 22, br. 3, str. 263-277
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Merenje rizika pozajmljivanja malim i srednjim preduzećima u Republici Srbiji u svetlu savremenih bankarskih regulativa
Measuring the risk of lending to small and medium-sized enterprises in the Republic of Serbia in light of modern banking regulations
aUniverzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije, Bijeljina, Republika Srpska, BiH bUniversity Goce Delcev, Faculty of Tourism and Business logistics, Gevgelija, Stip, Republic of North Macedonia
e-adresa: mirela.mitrasevic@fpe.ues.rs.ba
Ključne reči: finansiranje MSP; kreditni rizik; zahtevi kapitala; kreditno bodovanje; ekvivalent za ocenjivanje obveznica
Sažetak
Predmet ovog rada je merenje rizika pozajmljivanja malim i srednjih preduzećima (MSP), sa aspekta postojećih bankarskih regulativa. U radu se polazi od hipoteze da bi povećanje transparentnosti procesa merenja kreditnog rizika omogućilo blagovremeno otkrivanje problema i ostavilo prostor za preduzimanje neophodnih radnji za upravljanje malim i srednjim preduzećima, kao i svim poveriocima, i da bi, na taj način, MSP dobila priliku da se obezbede povoljniji izvori finansiranja. U istraživanju je korišćen Altmanov Z-skor model za procenu verovatnoće, da se preduzeća neće pridržavati svojih ugovornih obaveza i za rangiranje privrednih društava. Rezultati primene Z-skor modela ukazuju na činjenicu da se tim modelima, u izvesnoj meri, mogu otkriti ona privredna društva koja će u periodu od dve godine nakon izvršene procene možda proglasiti stečaj, s jedne strane, ali da se oni ne mogu smatrati pouzdanim kada je u pitanju procena verovatnoće da će doći proglašenje stečaja u malim i srednjim preduzećima u Republici Srbiji.
Abstract
The subject matter of this paper is measuring the risk of lending to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) from the point of view of the existing banking regulations. The paper starts from the hypothesis that an increase in the transparency of the credit risk measurement process would enable the timely detection of problems and leave room for the actions necessary for the management of small and mediumsized enterprises, as well as all creditors, and generate an opportunity for SMEs to provide more favorable sources of financing. In the research study, the well-known Altman Z-Score model was used to assess the probability of default and rank a company. The results of the application of the Z-Score model indicate that, to a certain extent, they can detect the companies in which bankruptcy may occur in the two years following the assessment, on the one hand, but they cannot be considered as reliable for the assessment of the probability of the bankruptcy of SMEs in the Republic of Serbia, on the other.
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