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2020, vol. 48, br. 4, str. 7-22
Dinamika stope nezaposlenosti u maloj otvorenoj privredi - slučaj Srbije
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Srbija

e-adresazorica.mladenovic@ekof.bg.ac.rs
Ključne reči: nezaposlenost; efekat histerezisa; kointegracija; VAR model; dinamički odnosi
Sažetak
U radu se razmatra dinamička veza između stope nezaposlenosti i ključnih makroekonomskih promenljivih u Srbiji, koju karakterišu visoke stope nezaposlenosti još od Svetske ekonomske krize. Ekonometrijska analiza ukazuje na moguću efektivnost mera ekonomske politike za smanjenje stope nezaposlenosti. Kointegrisani vektorski autoregresioni model predstavlja osnovni metodološki okvir i korišćen je za period 2014-2019. Kointegracionoj analizi prethodi ispitivanje validnosti hipoteze o histerezisu stope nezaposlenosti. Dobijeni rezultati ukazuju na to da postoji značajan negativan dugoročni uticaj realnih zarada na stopu nezaposlenosti, i pozitivni dugoročni uticaj apresijacije realnog efektivnog deviznog kursa na realne plate. Da bi se dodatno smanjila stopa nezaposlenosti, potrebno je da se primene politike povećanja tražnje.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/industrija48-29763
primljen: 07.11.2020.
revidiran: 17.12.2020.
prihvaćen: 20.12.2020.
objavljen onlajn: 31.12.2020.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 12.01.2021.
metod recenzije: dvostruko anoniman
Creative Commons License 4.0

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