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2017, vol. 65, br. 1-2, str. 103-112
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Monetarne i finansijske pretpostavke viših stopa privrednog rasta u Srbiji
Monetary and financial prerequisits of higher growth rates in Serbia
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Katedra za ekonomsku politiku i razvoj, Srbija
Projekat: Rizici finansijskih institucija i tržišta u Srbiji - mikroekonomski i makroekonomski pristup (MPNTR - 179005)
Sažetak
Srbija je u procesu fundamentalne promene svoje privredne structure. Prethodni model privrednog rasta završio se sa globalnom finansijskom krizom 2007/2008 koja je otkrila neodrživu prirodu rasta baziranog na uvozu i potrošnji koji je bio na delu od 2000-te godine. Potreban je preokret u pravcu investicija i izvoza, uz veću konkurentnost i glavninu rasta u razmenljivom delu BDPa. Od 2008. godine, međutim, Srbija je manjeviše u privrednoj stagnaciji,prošavši od tada kroz tri recesione godine. Investicije su još uvek nedovoljne i privredni rast je ispod očekivanja. Fiskalna konsolidacija je tokom 2016. godine počela da daje važne rezultate, uz postepeno oživljavanje rasta ali još uvek ispod regionalnog proseka. Postoji li prostor za unapređenja u domenu monetarne politike i funkcionisanja finansijskog sistema, koja mogu da daju dodatni podsticaj novom razvojnom modelu zemlje? Ovaj rad ima nameru da se bavi ovim pitanjima i da analizira konkretne probleme trenutnog stanja monetarne politike i finansijskog sistema u Srbiji. U radu se daju konkretne preporuke za svaku oblast mogućih unapređenja koje bi srpski privredni rast mogle podstaknuti u pravcu viših i održivih stopa u narednim godinama.
Abstract
Serbia is in a process of a fundamental shift in its economic structure. Prior growth model has ended with the global financial crisis of 2007/2008 which has revealed an unsustainable nature of import and consumption based economic growth that has been in place since the beginning of the century. A shift towards investments and exports, with higher competiveness and most of the growth coming from tradable part of the GDP is needed. Ever since 2008, however, Serbia is in, more or less, economic stagnation, with three recessionary years. Investments are still inadequate and growth is below expectations. Fiscal consolidation has started to give important results in 2016, with growth gradually recovering but still below regional average. Is there room for improvement in the domain of monetary policy and functioning of the financial system that can give additional impetus to this new growth model? This paper is attempting to shed more light on these issues and to analyze specific problems of monetary economics and financial system status quo in Serbia. Specific recommendations are given for each area of possible improvements that could lead Serbia's economic growth towards higher and sustainable rates in the following years.
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