- citati u SCIndeksu: [2]
- citati u CrossRef-u:[2]
- citati u Google Scholaru:[
 ]
- posete u poslednjih 30 dana:5
- preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:4
|
|
|
2017, vol. 65, br. 1-2, str. 103-112
|
|
Monetarne i finansijske pretpostavke viših stopa privrednog rasta u Srbiji
Monetary and financial prerequisits of higher growth rates in Serbia
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Katedra za ekonomsku politiku i razvoj, Srbija
Projekat: Rizici finansijskih institucija i tržišta u Srbiji - mikroekonomski i makroekonomski pristup (MPNTR - 179005)
Sažetak
Srbija je u procesu fundamentalne promene svoje privredne structure. Prethodni model privrednog rasta završio se sa globalnom finansijskom krizom 2007/2008 koja je otkrila neodrživu prirodu rasta baziranog na uvozu i potrošnji koji je bio na delu od 2000-te godine. Potreban je preokret u pravcu investicija i izvoza, uz veću konkurentnost i glavninu rasta u razmenljivom delu BDPa. Od 2008. godine, međutim, Srbija je manjeviše u privrednoj stagnaciji,prošavši od tada kroz tri recesione godine. Investicije su još uvek nedovoljne i privredni rast je ispod očekivanja. Fiskalna konsolidacija je tokom 2016. godine počela da daje važne rezultate, uz postepeno oživljavanje rasta ali još uvek ispod regionalnog proseka. Postoji li prostor za unapređenja u domenu monetarne politike i funkcionisanja finansijskog sistema, koja mogu da daju dodatni podsticaj novom razvojnom modelu zemlje? Ovaj rad ima nameru da se bavi ovim pitanjima i da analizira konkretne probleme trenutnog stanja monetarne politike i finansijskog sistema u Srbiji. U radu se daju konkretne preporuke za svaku oblast mogućih unapređenja koje bi srpski privredni rast mogle podstaknuti u pravcu viših i održivih stopa u narednim godinama.
Abstract
Serbia is in a process of a fundamental shift in its economic structure. Prior growth model has ended with the global financial crisis of 2007/2008 which has revealed an unsustainable nature of import and consumption based economic growth that has been in place since the beginning of the century. A shift towards investments and exports, with higher competiveness and most of the growth coming from tradable part of the GDP is needed. Ever since 2008, however, Serbia is in, more or less, economic stagnation, with three recessionary years. Investments are still inadequate and growth is below expectations. Fiscal consolidation has started to give important results in 2016, with growth gradually recovering but still below regional average. Is there room for improvement in the domain of monetary policy and functioning of the financial system that can give additional impetus to this new growth model? This paper is attempting to shed more light on these issues and to analyze specific problems of monetary economics and financial system status quo in Serbia. Specific recommendations are given for each area of possible improvements that could lead Serbia's economic growth towards higher and sustainable rates in the following years.
|
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
2  
|
Acemoglu, D., Thaicharoen, Y. (2003) Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: Volatility, crises, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 50, (Јаn), str. 49-123
|
|
|
Beck, R., Jakubik, P., Piloiu, A. (2013) Non-performing loans: What matters in addition to the economic cycle?. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series No 1515, February
|
|
|
Bernanke, B.S. (2001) Inflation targeting: lessons from the international experience. Princeton University Press
|
|
3 
|
Božović, M., Urošević, B., Živković, B. (2009) On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk. Ekonomski anali, vol. 54, br. 183, str. 32-55
|
|
|
Buera, F.J., Shin, Y. (2013) Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration. Journal of Political Economy, 121(2): 221-272
|
|
4
|
Calvo, G.A., Mishkin, F.S. (2003) The mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 17, br. 4 (Fall 2003), str. 99-118
|
|
|
Carkovic, M., Levine, R.E. (2002) Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?. u: Department of Finance Working Paper
|
|
3
|
Chailloux, A., Ohnsorge, F., Vavra, D. (2010) Euroisation in Serbia. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Working Paper, No 120
|
|
|
Cheung, Y., Dooley, M., Sushko, V. (2012) Investment and Growth in Rich and Poor Countries. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research
|
|
|
de Backer, K., Miroudot, S. (2014) Mapping global value chains. European Central Bank, May, No 1677
|
|
2
|
de Gregorio, J., Guidotti, P.E. (1995) Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3): 433-448
|
|
5
|
Friedman, M. (1968) The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58(1)
|
|
1
|
IMF (2016) Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: Effective Government for stronger growth. Regional Economic Issues, November
|
|
|
IMF (2016) Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: How to get back on the fast track. Regional Economic Issues, May
|
|
4
|
Jonas, J., Mishkin, F.S. (2005) Inflation targeting in transition countries: Experience and prospects. u: Woodford Michael [ur.] Inflation Targeting, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, str. 353-413
|
|
9
|
Klein, N. (2013) Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance. IMF Working Papers, 13(72): 1
|
|
1 
|
Kovač, O., Šoškić, D. (2014) Could the Serbian banking sector be improved by introducing, trough national legislation, the principles and mechanisms of the EU banking union. Megatrend revija, vol. 11, br. 4, str. 31-40
|
|
|
Kuzmanović, M., Sanfey, P. (2014) Diagnosing growth constraints in Southeastern Europe: The case of Serbia. (No. 167). Working Paper
|
|
|
Mishkin, F., Posen, A. (1998) Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research
|
|
1
|
National Bank of Serbia (2016) Inflation Report. National Bank of Serbia
|
|
|
National Bank of Serbia (2015) Annual Report on activities and results. National Bank of Serbia
|
|
1
|
Nojković, A., Petrović, P. (2015) Monetary policy rule in inflation targeting emerging European countries: A discrete choice approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(4): 577-595
|
|
|
OECD (2013) SME and entrepreneurship financing: The role of credit guarantee schemes and mutual guarantee societies in supporting finance for small and medium-sized enterprises. Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs and Local Development
|
|
|
OECD, EU (2010) Improving new investment finance options in the Western Balkans. OECD
|
|
|
Šoškić, D. (2016) Ka jednovalutnom sistemu u Srbiji - značaj i mogući modaliteti. u: Šoškić D.; Arsić M. [ur.] Ekonomska politika u Srbiji u 2016 godini, Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet
|
|
2
|
Šoškić, D. (2015) Inflation targeting challenges in emerging market countries: The case of Serbia. Ekonomski anali, vol. 60, br. 204, str. 7-30
|
|
1
|
Warner, A. (2014) Public Investment as an Engine of Growth. IMF Working Papers, 14(148): 1
|
|
|
|
|