Metrika

  • citati u SCIndeksu: 0
  • citati u CrossRef-u:0
  • citati u Google Scholaru:[]
  • posete u poslednjih 30 dana:12
  • preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:4

Sadržaj

članak: 5 od 24  
Back povratak na rezultate
2020, vol. 65, br. 3, str. 263-281
Ranjivost poljoprivrede na klimatske promene u Srbiji - procena uticaja i šteta po mišljenju poljoprivrednika
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet

e-adresasruzica@agrif.bg.ac.rs
Projekat:
Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije (institucija: Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet) (MPNTR - 451-03-68/2020-14/200116)

Ključne reči: klimatske promene; osetljivost poljoprivrede; uticaji; upitnik
Sažetak
U skladu sa već osmotrenim trendovima povećanja temperature vazduha, izmenjenog režima padavina i produžetka vegetacione sezone, kao i sa predviđanjima da će se klimatski uslovi u Srbiji izrazito pogoršavati, a rizici u poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji povećavati, cilj ovog rada je da se proceni ranjivost poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Srbiji pod uticajem klimatskih promena na osnovu percepcije poljoprivrednika. Tim eksperata iz svih oblasti poljoprivrede i upravljanja vodama i zemljištem, sastavio je pitanja za onlajn anketu, poluotvorenog tipa. Prikupljanje podataka je vršeno putem interneta, uglavnom se oslanjajući na društvene mreže. Na upitnik je odgovorio ukupno 141 ispitanik. Analiza podataka je vršena putem deskriptivne statistike, a primenjena je analiza glavnih komponenti (PCA) sa Varimax rotacijom. Uočena su dva faktora: (i) uticaj klimatskih promena na rizike u poljoprivredi, i (ii) šteta izazvana klimatskim promenama. Analiza varijanse (ANOVA) i Studentov t test korišćeni su za ispitivanje uzoraka nezavisnih od razlike, dok je povezanost dve promenljive testirana Pirsonovim koeficijentom. Na osnovu dobijenih podataka, analizirane su štete koje poljoprivrednici trpe usled klimatskih promena i smanjenje prihoda u odnosu na uobičajene prihode, a shodno proizvodnji kojom se poljoprivrednici bave. Takođe su identifikovani pozitivni uticaji klimatskih promena. Sagledana je potreba za obukom u oblasti ublažavanja uticaja klimatskih promena. Po mišljenju poljoprivrednika, najznačajniji uticaji klimatskih promena su pojave ekstremno visoke temperature, suša i pojava kasnih prolećnih mrazeva i grada. Klimatske promene su se najviše odrazile na pad prinosa, pojavu novih bolesti i štetočina i na smanjenje tolerantnosti useva na postojeće štetočine i bolesti. Poljoprivrednici su pokazali veliku zainteresovanost za obuku o merama adaptacije i ublažavanja uticaja klimatskih promena u poljoprivredi.
Reference
*** (2015) First national adaptation plan in climate change condition. Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection, Retrieved December 3, 2018 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NAP-UNDP-2015-srpski.pdf
*** (2018) Statistical yearbook. Retrieved March 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/publication/?p=11525
Avakumović, D., Stričević, R., Đurović, N., Stanić, M., Dašić, T., Đukić, V. (2005) Savremena analiza potrebnih količina vode za navodnjavanje. Vodoprivreda, 37 (213-215), 11-20
Azhoni, A., Goyal, M.K. (2018) Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities. Science of the Total Environment, 626: 468-477
Barkmann, T., Siebert, R., Lange, A. (2017) Land-use experts' perception of regional climate change: An empirical analysis from the North German Plain. Climatic Change, 144(2): 287-301
Church, S.P., Dunn, M., Babin, N., Mase, A.S., Haigh, T., Prokopy, L.S. (2018) Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk?: An in-depth examination of Midwestern U.S. Ag advisors' views on drought, climate change, and risk management. Agriculture and Human Values, 35(2): 349-365
Ćosić, M., Lukić, M., Stričević, R., Đurović, N. (2011) Irrigation development in Western Serbia. u: -University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture [ur.] Melioracije: The Conference on Soil and Water Management 11, Proceedings, Novi Sad, pp. 122-128
European Environment Agency (EEA) (2017) Retrieved November 28, 2018 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/key-past-and-projected-impacts-and-effects-on-sectors-for-the-main-biogeographic-regions-of-europe-3
Findlater, K.M., Satterfield, T., Kandlikar, M., Donner, S.D. (2018) Six languages for a risky climate: How farmers react to weather and climate change. Climatic Change, 148(4): 451-465
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Russo, S., Vousdoukas, M., Alfieri, L., Outten, S., Migliavacca, M., Bianchi, A., Rojas, R., Cid, A. (2016) Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Climatic Change, 137(1-2): 105-119
Grimberg, B.I., Ahmed, S., Ellis, C., Miller, Z., Menalled, F. (2018) Climate change perceptions and observations of agricultural stakeholders in the Northern Great Plains. Sustainability, 10(5): 1687-1687
Grothmann, T., Patt, A. (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change, 15(3): 199-213
Holland, M.B., Shamer, S.Z., Imbach, P., Zamora, J.C., Medellin, M.C., Hidalgo, E.J. L., Donatti, C.I., Martínez-Rodríguez, M. R., Harvey, C.A. (2017) Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: Applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale. Climatic Change, 141(1): 139-153
International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. u: Stocker T.F; Qin D; Plattner G.K; Tignor M; Allen S.K; Boschung J; Nauels A; Xia Y; Bex V; Midgley P.M. [ur.] Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom-New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1535
IPCC (In press) Summary for Policymakers. u: Shukla P.R; Skea J; Calvo Buendia E; Masson-Delmotte V; Pörtner H.-O; Roberts D.C; Zhai P; Slade R; Connors S; van Diemen R; Ferrat M; Haughey E; Luz S; Neogi S; Pathak M; Petzold J; Portugal Pereira [ur.] Climate change and land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, 2019
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. u: Field C.B; Barros V.R; Dokken D.J; Mach K.J; Mastrandrea M.D; Bilir T.E; Chatterjee M; Ebi K.L; Estrada Y.O; Genova R.C; Girma B; Kissel E.S; Levy A.N; MacCracken S; Mastrandrea P.R; White L.L. [ur.] Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom-New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1132
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O.B., Bouwer, L.M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G. (2014) Euro-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14(2): 563-578
Jancic, M., Lalic, B., Mihailovic, D.T., Jacimovic, G. (2015) Impact of climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization effect on irrigation water demand and yield of soybean in Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Science, 153(8): 1365-1379
Jankó, F., Németh, N., Bertalan, L., Pappné, V.J. (2017) Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: Results of an interview study. Studies in Agricultural Economics, 119(2): 55-61
Juhola, S., Klein, N., Käyhkö, J., Schmid, N.T. (2017) Climate change transformations in Nordic agriculture?. Journal of Rural Studies, 51: 28-36
Khatri-Chhetri, A., Aggarwal, P.K., Joshi, P.K., Vyas, S. (2017) Farmers' prioritization of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. Agricultural Systems, 151: 184-191
Lalić, B., Eitzinger, J., Mihailović, D.T., Thaler, S., Jančić, M. (2013) Climate change impacts on winter wheat yield change: Which climatic parameters are crucial in Pannonian lowland?. Journal of Agricultural Science, 151(6): 757-774
Li, C., Leal, F.W., Wang, J., Yin, J., Fedoruk, M., Bao, G., Bao, Y., Yin, S., Yu, S., Hu, R. (2018) An assessment of the impacts of climate extremes on the vegetation in Mongolian Plateau: Using a scenarios-based analysis to support regional adaptation and mitigation options. Ecological Indicators, 95: 805-814
Marchildon, G.P., Wheaton, E., Fletcher, A.J., Vanstone, J. (2016) Extreme drought and excessive moisture conditions in two Canadian watersheds: Comparing the perception of farmers and ranchers with the scientific record. Natural Hazards, 82(1): 245-266
Masud, M.M., Azam, M.N., Mohiuddin, M., Banna, H., Akhtar, R., Alam, A.S.A. F., Begum, H. (2017) Adaptation barriers and strategies towards climate change: Challenges in the agricultural sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, 156: 698-706
Mihailović, D.T., Lalić, B., Drešković, N., Mimić, G., Đurđević, V., Jančić, M. (2015) Climate change effects on crop yields in Serbia and related shifts of Köppen climate zones under the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. International Journal of Climatology, 35(11): 3320-3334
Neset, T.S., Wiréhn, L., Opach, T., Glaas, E., Linnér, B.O. (2018) Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture. Ecological Indicators
Niles, M.T., Lubell, M., Brown, M. (2015) How limiting factors drive agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 200: 178-185
Republic Hydrometeorological Service (Republic of Serbia) Retrieved April 1, 2019 from http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/klimatologija_srbije.php
Robinson, G.M., Bardsley, D.K., Raymond, C.M., Underwood, T., Moskwa, E., Weber, D., Waschl, N., Bardsley, A.K. (2018) Adapting to climate change: Lessons from farmers and peri-urban fringe residents in South Australia. Environments, 5(3): 40-40
Ruml, M., Vuković, A., Vujadinović, M., Đurđević, V.S., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Atanacković, Z., Sivčev, B., Marković, N.R., Matijašević, S., Petrović, N. (2012) On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 158-159: 53-62
SNC (2015) Second report of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Agriculture of Republic of Serbia, Retirieved March 30, 2019 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Drugi-izvestaj-o-promeni-klime-SNC_Srbija.pdf
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2012) Census of agriculture. Retrieved February 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia Retrieved March 15, 2019 from http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2017/Pdf/G201714014.pdf
Stricevic, R.J., Stojakovic, N., Vujadinovic-Mandic, M., Todorovic, M. (2018) Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Journal of Agricultural Science, 156(5): 618-627
Stričević, R.J., Đurović, N.Lj., Vuković, A.J., Vujadinović, M.P., Ćosić, M.D., Pejić, B.S. (2014) Application of AquaCrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Sciences (Belgrade), vol. 59, br. 3, str. 301-317
Takahashi, B., Burnham, M., Terracina-Hartman, C., Sopchak, A.R., Selfa, T. (2016) Climate change perceptions of NY state farmers: The role of risk perceptions and adaptive capacity. Environmental Management, 58(6): 946-957
Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Bharwani, S., Fronzek, S., Downing, T.E. (2016) How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change?: Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain. Regional Environmental Change, 16(1): 59-70
Vitasse, Y., Schneider, L., Rixen, C., Christen, D., Rebetez, M. (2018) Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 248: 60-69
Woods, B.A., Nielsen, H.Ø., Pedersen, A.B., Kristofersson, D. (2017) Farmers' perceptions of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture. Land Use Policy, 65: 109-120
 

O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.2298/JAS2003263S
primljen: 20.02.2020.
prihvaćen: 24.07.2020.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 23.10.2020.
metod recenzije: dvostruko anoniman
Creative Commons License 4.0