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2001, vol. 5, br. 2, str. 47-52
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Tehnika futuroloških predviđanja u makro i mikro marketingu strategijskog menadžmenta turističkih preduzeća
The technique of forecasting in the macro and micromarketing of the tourist firms strategic marketing
aUniverzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet
bViša turistička škola, Novi Beograd
Sažetak
Tehnika futuroloških predviđanja, poslednjih decenija, dobija na značaju u analizi makro i mikromarketinga kod strategijskog menadžmenta turističkih preduzeća (npr.: hotelijera, restoratera i drugih). Radi se, najčešće, o predviđanjima koja sprovode specijalizovani instituti ili eksperti - pojedinci. Vizije koje se sugerišu trebalo bi da budu značajna podloga za odluke top menadžmenta da se od strategije puke reakcije na zbivanja u sredini pomere ka proaktivnom pristupu i tako osposobe za preuzimanje većeg rizika. Ovim prilogom se ukazuje na osnovne elemente značaja i uloge futuroloških predviđanja i potenciraju neka skorija futurološka predviđanja od strane eksperata relevantna za područje turističke industrije.
Abstract
During the last decades an increased importance was dedicated to technique of forecasting in the analysis of macro and micromarketing in the strategic management of tourist firms (e.g. hotels, restaurants etc). The forecasting carried out by specialized institutes and individual experts are more frequently in use. The visions suggested should present a solid base for top management decisions of mentioned firms in their shifting from the strategy of a simple reaction to the events in the environment towards a proactive approach, thus making them capable to undertake higher risks. The basic elements of the importance and rule of forecasting are included into this paper. Some more recent forecasting by experts, relevant to the area of tourist industry, are also pointed to.
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